Wind power prediction method and system for wind power plant

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind power prediction method and system for a wind power plant, and relates to the technical field of wind power prediction, and the method comprises a data obtaining module which is used for obtaining the topography, landform, fan distribution, fan power generation characteristics and climate characteristic data of a power station; dividing modeling modules; a power generation prediction module; a data sending module; a man-machine interaction module; a data statistics module; and an information reporting module. According to the method, the meteorological sources which are more suitable for the station are screened, selected and combined to perform ensemble power prediction, and the method aims at seasonal change of climate, mutual influence of regional climate, extreme weather conditions, operation state change of wind power equipment and the like. The prediction service center sends weather forecast provided by a numerical simulation technology every day, and also sends electric field prediction model parameters adjusted according to actual meteorological measurement data covering the whole country, so that the timeliness of prediction model adjustment is ensured, the prediction precision of the system is further ensured, resources are saved, and economic loss is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of wind power prediction, in particular to a wind power prediction method and system for a wind farm. Background technique [0002] Wind power prediction technology refers to the prediction of the power output by wind farms in the future in order to arrange dispatching plans. This is because wind energy is an unstable energy source with random fluctuations, and the incorporation of large-scale wind power into the system will inevitably bring new challenges to the stability of the system. The power production dispatcher needs to have some idea of ​​the wind power output in the coming hours. According to the time scale of wind farm output forecast, it includes: long-term forecast, medium-term forecast, short-term forecast and ultra-short-term forecast. With the maturity of wind power generation technology, the single wind power capacity and the scale of grid-connected wind farms continue to expand, and the p...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to solve certain problems existing in the prior art in terms of the accuracy rate of the ultra-short-term forecast data, the reporting rate of the ultra-short-term forecast data, the qualified rate of meteorological data, and the correlation coefficient of the day-ahead. In terms of wind power prediction, a large amount of on-grid electricity is assessed by the grid every month, causing huge economic losses. A wind power prediction method and system for wind farms is proposed

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