Power distribution network overhead line icing risk index prediction method

A technology of risk index and forecasting method, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as wire deformation, wire freezing, tower collapse, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-01-14
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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  • Abstract
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Problems solved by technology

[0002] During the operation of the transmission line of the distribution network under cold weather conditions, the surface of the conductor will be frozen due to the condensation of moisture in the air on the surface of the conductor. Under the change of the weather and the carryi

Method used

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  • Power distribution network overhead line icing risk index prediction method
  • Power distribution network overhead line icing risk index prediction method
  • Power distribution network overhead line icing risk index prediction method

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Embodiment 1

[0039] The present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiments and the accompanying drawings.

[0040] Such as figure 1 As shown, a non-lightning flashover risk index prediction method for lightning arresters in distribution networks includes the following steps:

[0041] Step 1: Establish the time series of the evolution system of the overhead line icing risk index:

[0042] In the present embodiment, measure conductor sag, rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind speed, PM2.5 value in 55 equally spaced time periods, then obtain, a 6-dimensional time series that measurement data constitutes:

[0043] w 1 1 w 1 2 · · ...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution monitoring, and particularly relates to a power distribution network overhead line icing risk index prediction method. The method comprises the following steps that 1 a time sequence of an overhead line icing risk index evolution system is established; 2 a phase space of an overhead line icing risk index non-linear dynamic system is reconstructed; 3 a phase point, at a next moment, of the phase space is calculated; 4 the overhead line icing risk index prediction value is calculated. According to the power distribution network overhead line icing risk index prediction method, prediction is accurate; by establishing a power distribution network arrester non-lightning flashover risk index prediction model suitable for engineering practical application, accurate prediction of the arrester non-lightning flashover risk index is effectively realized; for the regions, where power distribution network natural weather conditions are severe and changeable, such as coastal regions and the regions along rivers, a complete and reliable prediction system can be realized, and the influences of severe environments are avoided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution monitoring, and in particular relates to a method for predicting an icing risk index for an overhead line of a distribution network. Background technique [0002] During the operation of the transmission line of the distribution network under cold weather conditions, the surface of the conductor will be frozen due to the condensation of moisture in the air on the surface of the conductor. Under the change of the weather and the carrying current of the line, the thickness and weight of the icing on the surface of the conductor will vary. It may continue to accumulate, eventually leading to deformation and breakage of the wires, and even the collapse of the tower, causing serious power outages. research on laws, etc. [0003] In view of the increasingly complex operation mode and operating environment of the power grid, and the challenges of cold and humid environments, ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 于鑫回茜霍腾宇熊超
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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