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Markov process-based rapid prediction technology in ocean pollution accidents

A technology of marine pollution and forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, instruments, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problem of consuming large computing resources, and achieve the effect of saving computing resources and computing time

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-05-31
OCEAN UNIV OF CHINA
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Problems solved by technology

If the process is completely simulated by the numerical model, it will consume a large amount of computing resources

Method used

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Embodiment

[0016] A rapid prediction technology based on Markov process in marine pollution accidents, the steps are as follows:

[0017] 1. In order to calculate the material transfer matrix, the study area is divided into N partitions, and the number of partitions depends on the research situation and the time step of the model division.

[0018] 2. Use the ocean numerical model to simulate the dynamic field in the ocean as the dynamic condition for material transport, and store the calculation results.

[0019] 3. Simulation of particle transport in the study area. Particle Tracing Models can use any model that has particle tracing capabilities. After the kinetic model runs stably, the particles are uniformly released in each partition, and the simulation of particle transport and diffusion is started. Select a certain time step as a research period, and output the position of the particle according to the period. The time step should be combined with the actual hydrodynamic situat...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a Markov process-based rapid prediction technology in ocean pollution accidents in the technical field of ocean water quality prediction and Markov process. The technology comprises the following steps of: (1) partitioning a researched sea area, dividing the research process into periods with a same time length according to the fact that the periodical movement of sea water has Markov property, representing pollutants in the sea by a certain quantity of particles, and simulating substance transportation among the areas by adoption of a Lagrange particle tracking method in an ocean numerical mode; (2) carrying out statistics on proportions of particles which are released from different partitions presenting to each partition at different periods, and solving a Markov probability transition matrix of the area; and (3) predicting a water exchange or pollutant transportation process of the water area according to the Markov probability transition matrix. According to the technology, the water exchange or substance transportation processes of the researched areas can be efficiently and rapidly predicted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of marine water quality prediction and Markov process, in particular to a rapid prediction technology based on Markov process in marine pollution accidents. Background technique [0002] The prediction and prediction of sudden pollution accidents such as oil spills in the ocean is a hot issue in marine environmental science research. The study of the transport laws of substances in the ocean after marine pollution accidents is an important reference for the emergency response to pollution accidents and the assessment of the consequences of pollution accidents. At present, for such water quality prediction problems, numerical model simulation methods are mostly used, and many complex three-dimensional ocean numerical models have been developed at home and abroad. [0003] Due to the complexity of water flow, it takes a very long time to completely transport the substances in one region to other regions throu...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26Y02A20/152
Inventor 张学庆赵杨辛力李庆臻
Owner OCEAN UNIV OF CHINA
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