Probability distribution based short-time rainfall forecast method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a probability distribution based short-time rainfall forecast method and system, and belongs to the technical field of rainfall forecast. The system comprises a cloud atlas collection module, a meteorology data acquisition module, a data transmission module, a master control module, a rainfall probability generation module, a precipitation estimation module, a rainfall characteristic determination module and a data display module. The precipitation estimation module can obtain rainfall data of higher precision and confidence by using advantages of multi-source data; therainfall characteristic determination module uses a rainfall rain type characteristic matrix and time characteristic matrix of a rainfall station to describe the rainfall and movement condition of the rainstorm center in the aspects of time and space; and a mathematic matrix is used to describe the time-space distribution characteristic of rainfall, the rainfall characteristic is researched lateron the basis of the mathematic matrix, and the accuracy and comprehensiveness of rainfall characteristic research are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of precipitation forecasting, in particular to a method and system for short-term precipitation forecasting based on probability distribution. Background technique [0002] Weather forecasting (measurement) or weather forecasting (measurement) is the use of modern science and technology to predict the state of the earth's atmosphere at a certain location in the future. Weather forecasting primarily uses the collection of large amounts of data (temperature, humidity, wind direction and speed, air pressure, etc.) and then uses current understanding of atmospheric processes (meteorology) to determine future air changes. The satellite cloud images of my country's Central Meteorological Observatory are taken from meteorological satellites such as "Fengyun-1". Using satellite cloud images for analysis can improve the accuracy of weather forecasts. Weather forecasts are generally divided into three types in terms...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] (1) The existing short-term precipitation forecast uses one type of data alone to estimate rainfall, which may easily cause deviations in the estimation results due to errors in observation data, which is not conducive to providing accurate data support for geological disaster monitoring, flood control and drought relief, etc. ; At the same time, in the actual rainfall process, the rainfall characteristics of the area where the rainfall station is located may be different from other areas of the urban area, that is, the actual rainfall process of the urban area does not match the rainfall characteristics determined by the above method, resulting in the above-mentioned The Accuracy of the Rainfall Characteristic Research Method is Poor

[0005] (2) In the existing technology, the

Images