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Influenza vaccine injection strategy making method based on optimal control

An optimal control and flu vaccine technology, applied in medicine or prescriptions, epidemic warning systems, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as the decline in successful immunization rates, inability to supply enough vaccines, and achieve strong operability and the effect of feasibility

Active Publication Date: 2020-06-30
DALIAN UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

However, influenza viruses have strong mutation characteristics. Whenever a new epidemic occurs, vaccines usually need to be re-developed and produced in a targeted manner, which leads to insufficient vaccine supply in the early stages of the epidemic.
This variable nature also makes the rate of successful immunization after vaccination decline over time

Method used

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  • Influenza vaccine injection strategy making method based on optimal control
  • Influenza vaccine injection strategy making method based on optimal control
  • Influenza vaccine injection strategy making method based on optimal control

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Embodiment Construction

[0035] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with specific examples.

[0036] Considering an influenza epidemic, the mortality rate caused by influenza infection is a=0.2; the natural birth rate and natural death rate are b=0.525 and d=0.5 respectively; the probability of converting from the incubation period to the infectious period is e=0.5; from the infectious period The probability of conversion to recovery is g=0.1; the contact rate of seasonal cycle change is c(t)=0.001+0.0005cos(2πt); the successful immunization rate after vaccination is f(t)=exp(-t / 50 ); the production capacity of the vaccine is Ω(t)=1000-900exp(-t / 5). In the optimal control problem, the initial time and terminal time of control are respectively t 0 = 0 and t f = 10; the weight of the number of infections relative to vaccine consumption in the performance index is ε = 0.02; 0 The population sizes at each moment are 1000, 100, 50 and 15, respectively. A method for form...

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Abstract

The invention provides an influenza vaccine injection strategy making method based on optimal control, and belongs to the field of epidemic prevention. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, describing a propagation rule of influenza by adopting epidemiodynamics based on an SEIR chamber model, and introducing a vaccine injection rate as a control variable to construct a system equationcontaining control; secondly, analyzing the capacity limitation of the vaccine, and describing the constraint condition by utilizing an inequality; and counting the population quantity in each bin atpresent to serve as an initial condition of the controlled system; and finally, based on the system equation, the constraint condition and the initial condition, establishing a constraint-containingnonlinear optimal control problem taking the minimized number of infections and vaccine consumption as performance indexes, and solving the optimal control problem by utilizing a numerical method to obtain an optimal vaccine injection strategy. The optimal influenza vaccine injection rate under the optimal control meaning can be solved, and a basis can be provided for scientific epidemic prevention of influenza.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of epidemic prevention and relates to a method for formulating an influenza vaccine injection strategy based on optimal control. Background technique [0002] Influenza (flu) is an acute respiratory infection caused by influenza virus. It is a highly contagious infectious disease, and its transmission speed and ability show seasonal correlation. In recent years, influenza epidemics have occurred around the world, causing serious casualties and economic losses. Vaccination is an important means of preventing influenza and thereby curbing the spread of influenza. However, influenza viruses have strong mutation characteristics. Whenever a new epidemic occurs, vaccines usually need to be re-developed and produced in a targeted manner, which makes it impossible to supply sufficient vaccines in the early stages of the epidemic. This variable nature also makes the rate of successful immunization after vaccination decline o...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G16H20/17G16H50/80G06Q10/04
CPCG16H20/17G16H50/80G06Q10/04
Inventor 王昕炜刘洁郑钦月彭海军陈飙松张盛李云鹏
Owner DALIAN UNIV OF TECH
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