Bird risk prediction and evaluation method for aero-engine in bird suction environment

Abstract

The invention discloses a bird risk prediction and evaluation method in an aero-engine bird-attracting environment. The method comprises steps of obtaining the probability of an aero-engine bird-attracting event according to historical data, writing an M file program through employing MATLAB language, achieving a BP neural network algorithm, predicting the economic loss caused by the aero-engine bird-attracting event through employing a BP neural network model, and obtaining the bird-attracting risk of an aero-engine; risk assessment being carried out in combination with the aircraft engine bird suction event probability and the risk assessment matrix; and finally, designing a GUI (Graphical User Interface), selecting eight factor data such as aircraft mass, engine installation number, engine type, month, weather, bird type, bird number and bird size in the statistical data according to the correlation degree of influence factors in the aircraft engine bird attraction event, and calling a BP (Back Propagation) neural network algorithm through an M file to obtain a result. The method is advantaged in that the model can be used for predicting the probability value, the severity degree and the risk assessment level of a certain bird inhaled by a certain engine of a certain flight aircraft in a specified time period and a specified height in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of aviation operation safety management, and relates to a bird risk prediction and evaluation method under the environment of bird ingestion by aero-engines. Background technique [0002] With the continuous improvement of the global ecological environment and the operation of jet airliners with less noise and larger air intakes, bird ingestion by aero-engines has increasingly become an important factor threatening the safety of civil aviation. [0003] According to the statistics of Boeing, the incidents of bird ingestion by aero-engines accounted for about 3 / 4 of all incidents of bird strikes, and the results are basically consistent with the statistics of CAA and ICAO. In order to avoid the occurrence of bird-inhaling incidents and reduce the damage caused by bird-inhaling incidents, many countries have carried out research work on aero-engine bird-inhaling. At present, the method to reduce the harm of bird-absorb...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] At present, domestic aero-engine design and R&D units still lack effective tools for bird risk prediction and assessment in the environment of aero-engine ingestion of birds

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