Probability trend calculating method considering large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected power generation system

Abstract

The invention provides a probability trend calculating method considering a large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected power generation system. The method comprises the following steps of: 1) establishing a typical U-I characteristic mathematical model of a grid-connected large-scale centralized photovoltaic grid-connected power generation system; 2) based on an MPPT control algorithm, calculating a maximum output power value of the large-scale centralized photovoltaic power generation system under a typical day illumination intensity, and calculating a mean value and a mean square error of output power; 3) determining a system net frame, considering a power output constraint, and carrying out Monte-Carlo sampling according to probability parameters of a power supply and loads in a system; and 4) considering a node voltage constraint, and calculating a probability trend of the electric power system according to a Newton-Raphson algorithm. According to the real-time illumination intensity of a typical day of someplace, the photovoltaic power generation model can precisely calculate the output of the photovoltaic power generation system and can automatically modify a photovoltaic output equation according to real-time illumination data and environment temperature changes, the method is simple, and the practicality is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of stochastic power flow calculation, in particular to a probabilistic power flow calculation method considering a large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected power generation system. Background technique [0002] With the worsening of environmental pollution and the increasingly tense energy supply, new energy power generation has sprung up, especially the rapid growth of photovoltaic power generation. my country has a vast terrain and abundant and widely distributed solar energy resources. The development of photovoltaic power generation technology is of great strategic significance to ensure my country's energy security, energy conservation and emission reduction, and achieve sustainable development. The western region has sufficient sunlight and is most suitable for the construction of large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected power generation systems. . The connection of large-scale photovoltaic power generation to the...

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Problems solved by technology

Moreover, with the increase of the proportion of intermittent energy in the system, the characteristics of the system's volatility and anti-peak regulation will have a profound impact on the operation of the system, and the uncertainty and randomness of photovoltaic power generation will bring more voltage Fluctuation, voltage over limit, grid security issues

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