Whole-process numerical simulation and dangerous case forecasting method for mountain disasters

Abstract

The invention discloses a whole-process numerical simulation and dangerous case forecasting method for mountain disasters. The method comprises the following steps of S1, forecasting high space-time rainfall in a mountain area; S2, carrying out hydrodynamic process and numerical simulation, namely establishing a hydrodynamic process model, and solving the hydrodynamic process model; S3, performing mountain torrent and debris flow disaster motion model and numerical simulation; and S4, analyzing the small watershed disaster risk and forecasting a dangerous case. According to the disaster whole-process scene simulation driven by a climate forecast result, the disaster harmfulness prediction and the risk loss dynamic quantitative evaluation are realized, the current disaster grade forecast is improved to dangerous case forecast, and the accurate disaster prevention and accurate rescue are served.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of numerical forecasting of mountain disasters, in particular to a method for numerical simulation and danger forecasting of the whole process of mountain disasters. Background technique [0002] Extreme weather and climate lead to frequent and frequent disasters in mountainous areas, resulting in continuous increase in direct economic losses from disasters. Intensified climate change has increased the risk of catastrophe and made prediction difficult. It is one of the major scientific and technological issues facing disaster prevention and mitigation. In the prior art, there are mainly following defects: [0003] 1. At present, the formation mechanism and evolution of typical single disasters are relatively mature. However, the understanding of the disaster formation mechanism and dynamic process mechanism of disasters under the influence of extreme weather and climate conditions, complex terrain in mountai...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] 2. The lack of physical models and computing platforms describing the whole process of disaster initiation-movement-accumulation in mountainous small watersheds limits the quantitative risk assessment and numerical prediction of small watershed disasters

[0008] 3. The single-factor risk assessment method in mountainous areas is relatively mature, but there is a lack of comprehensive research on the disaster-causing mechanism of the coupling process of water-soil-biology, which restricts the technical breakthrough of comprehensive risk understanding and quantitative assessment. It is urgent to carry out cross-scale multi-factor coupling. Quantitative assessment and mapping research of mountain risk

There are few studies on the microcosmic mechanism and disaster-causing effects of mountain ecology-hydrology-rock-soil processes, and the mountain risk evaluation index system is mostly based on background environmental factors such as topography, geology, soil, and multi-year rainfall. Steady-state and static indicators under such a long-term cycle cannot reflect the development trend and change process of mountain risk under climate change, which seriously restricts the theoretical and technological breakthroughs in the understanding and quantitative assessment of mountain risk

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