Method for forecasting and warning accident consequence of major hazard installation by combining with real-time meteorological information

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for forecasting and warning an accident consequence of a major hazard installation by combining with real-time meteorological information. The accident of the hazard installation is simulated by combining a high-spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric circulation numerical simulation and forecasting method with a gas dispersion simulation method, simultaneously adding an integrated forecasting method of a danger emission estimation method and a simulated data result post-processing method and combining with the real-time meteorological information and the real-time monitoring information of the hazard installation to obtain the quantitative three-dimensional spatial and temporal distribution result of hazardous gas after the accident occurs and the influence scope and the duration of the accident on an ambient environment; the hazard level and the like on a human body is analyzed and forecasted to obtain the three-dimensional spatial distribution condition of the poisonous and hazardous gas after the accident occurs and the quantitative pollutant concentration number of every target point. The invention provides a method which can be used for forecasting the accident consequence and an automatic evaluation method for hazard level of the accident. The method for forecasting and warning the accident consequence of the major hazard installation by combining with the real-time meteorological information has the characteristics that spatial and temporal spacing, such as the meteorological information, results and the like can be read in real time, the computing speed is high, the real-time performance is strong and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting and early warning of consequences of major hazard source accidents, in particular to a method for predicting and early warning of consequences of major hazard source accidents combined with real-time meteorological information. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of my country's social economy, environmental pollution incidents have entered a period of high incidence. According to relevant reports, there were 108 environmental emergencies directly dispatched and handled by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2007, and 135 in 2008. Among all kinds of environmental incidents, poisoning, explosion and fire incidents caused by leakage of hazardous substances usually cause huge casualties and extremely serious economic losses. For example, in 2003, the large blowout accident in Kaixian County, Chongqing, affected a radius of more than 10 kilometers, killing 243 people, injuring m...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

South China University of Technology has developed a set of fire and explosion simulation evaluation software system for chemical storage tanks. This software system can identify and quickly classify major hazards, but this system can only be used for fire and explosion simulation of chemical storage tanks. There are certain limitations, and the influence of real-time meteorological conditions is not considered

The “National Disaster Prevention and Rescue Science and Technology Center” of Taiwan Province has developed and constructed a poisonous and chemical disaster prevention and rescue decision-making support platform, which can realize the simulation of the diffusion of poisonous chemicals and the scope of influence. The combination of conditions affects the accuracy of gas diffusion simulation results to a certain extent.

Nankai University used MM5, HYSPLIT4 models and 6S technology to establish the grading standards for sudden air pollution events and the technical specifications for risk source identification. Hazardous gases and dangerous accidents with different emission methods are better simulated

Beijing, Qingdao and other cities have established GIS-based major hazard source monitoring information management systems, which have improved the technical content of safety production supervision and management, but the system focuses on the management and monitoring of hazard sources, and there is no quantitative simulation of the scope and intensity of the impact of dangerous accidents Ability

Wuhan University and Tsinghua University have established an emergency decision-making system for hazardous chemical leakage incidents based on GIS, using the Gaussian formula as the diffusion prediction model, but the diffusion model does not introduce the principle of gravity collapse, which has a certain impact on the accuracy of heavy gas cloud simulation

[0005] In summary, there are many defects in the current related systems and methods: they are not combined with real-time meteorological information, which greatly affects the accuracy of gas diffusion simulation results; they lack the ability to calculate source strength; the gas diffusion algorithm used lacks heavy gas collapse principle; did not establish an integrated system for the entire set of related methods, etc.

These deficiencies make the prediction of the spread of dangerous substances caused by accidents and their degree of harm unable to achieve high accuracy and practicability

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