Building method of Bohai sea spilled-oil transporting and extension value forecasting system

Abstract

The invention discloses a Bohai sea spilled-oil transporting and extension value forecasting system.The system can conduct forecasting on a transporting trajectory of an oil film, an extended range, the oil film thickness, the oil-passing-through area, the time for spilled-oil for reaching a shore or a sensitive area and the like after oil spilling occurs on a point source and a continuous source in Bohai sea area, and a forecasting result can be displayed on a computer screen visually and dynamically.Oil spill emergency action modes, types and number of vessels and situations of laying oil fences or using oil dispersant or the like are selected according to the forecasting result, oil spill damage is relieved or eliminated, and disaster prevention and reduction are achieved.Back tracking is conducted on the source of spilled oil in the Bohai sea area by combining with finger prints and satellite remote sensing, the source of the spilled oil on the sea is found out, and therefore a troublemaker is determined.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to marine environmental science, and relates to a rapid prediction technology for oil spill transfer and diffusion at sea, in particular to a method for establishing an extended numerical forecast system for oil spill transfer and expansion in the Bohai Sea. Background technique [0002] It is estimated that about 10 million tons of oil enter the sea every year in the world, accounting for about 5% of the world's total oil production, which is an astonishing amount. Although there are various reasons for oil pollution at sea, the most important reason is the oil entering the ocean due to oil tankers running aground, collision accidents, etc., and the oil flowing into the ocean such as the development of subsea oil fields, oil well accidents, and oil depot explosions in refineries. Such accidents The oil spill is the most serious, the most destructive to the marine ecological environment, the most serious damage to marine biologica...

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Problems solved by technology

Among them, the extended formula of Fay's three-stage theory is still widely used, but the assumption of Fay's theory emphasizes the expansion of oil on the still sea surface, while ignoring the influence of seawater internal turbulence and other factors (evaporation, emulsification, etc.), and is applied to actual bays Modeling has certain limitations, the approximation is too large

Some researchers use the finite difference method to solve the convection-diffusion equation, regard the oil spill as the source item, establish a numerical model of oil spill, and numerically simulate the transfer and diffusion of oil spill by solving the convection-diffusion equation, but the limitation of this method The reason is that the influence of turbulence cannot be well considered, the specific process of oil transport and expansion cannot be simulated, especially the initial process of oil spill, the physical and chemical processes cannot be well combined, and only a single flow can only be considered. Tidal currents are less accurate and cannot form a forecast model

The current theory of particle random diffusion has been applied by more and more researchers in the study of marine oil spill prediction models to establish marine oil spill prediction models. However, in these studies, only a single process is considered or the transport and diffusion processes are separated. , the established oil spill forecasting model, the subsequent forecast results and the actual observation results are only in good agreement in trend, and the difference in magnitude is too large. This is because the oil particles are regarded as particles with constant size and volume, and evaporation and emulsification , dissolution and other chemical and biological processes

The "Oil Spill Impact Model Application System (SIMAP and OiIMAP)" that is widely used in the United States, Canada, Australia and other countries, although the model part of the numerical prediction of oil spill impact uses the Monte Carlo The research on the transport and diffusion mechanism of oil in the ocean space is not enough, and the dynamic process is not suitable for the Bohai Sea, and it needs to be redeveloped to be applied in the Bohai Sea

[0004] The current domestic research on sea surface oil spill prediction models is mainly based on the full dynamic oil film movement numerical model, although it can better reflect the process of instantaneous oil spill at sea, but the shortcoming of this model is that it assumes that there is no tearing of the oil film in the process of change and movement. This is not in line with the actual situation at sea. Moreover, it is difficult to simulate the oil entering the water body (which is extremely important for the marine ecological environment) and the continuous oil spill at sea. This is the limitation of the method; the State Oceanic Administration Dalian Institute of Environmental Protection, in cooperation with the Mathematical Model Management Office of the North Sea and Escaux Estuary in Belgium, used the concept of "oil particles" to establish a three-dimensional numerical model for simulating oil spill behavior at sea, avoiding the pseudo-diffusion effect caused by traditional advection-diffusion numerical methods , but this model fails to solve the comprehensive influence of oil evaporation, emulsification, and dissolution physical and chemical interactions on oil expansion and transport behavior, and cannot quantitatively give key parameters such as oil residue, oil film thickness, and oil concentration in water. The problem is still to treat the oil particles as particles with constant oil volume

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