The embodiment of the invention provides an
inertia probability prediction method and device, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a comprehensive
feature set containing basic operation features and real-time dynamic features, and enabling the comprehensive
feature set to serve as the input of a prediction model; constructing a mixed risk objective function fusing an economic cost item, a decision risk cost item and a physical safety penalty item, wherein the mixed risk objective function is used for training a prediction model; and training a probability prediction model by adopting a risk-guided probability modeling method based on the mixed risk objective function so as to generate
inertia probability distribution of the embedded decision risk and the security constraint. Through a risk-guided probability modeling method, complete probability distribution of the embedded decision preference and the security boundary is generated, so that the statistical accuracy of prediction is improved, and the prediction robustness in an extreme risk scene is ensured; and a more reliable
inertia uncertainty description which better meets the decision demand is provided for fine scheduling and security defense of the power
system in a
new energy high-permeability environment.