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Photovoltaic power prediction method based on ground-based cloud chart

A power prediction, ground-based cloud map technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as low spatial and temporal resolution, difficult power mutation learning, and no cloud map data involved.

Active Publication Date: 2013-10-16
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

At present, photovoltaic power prediction methods mainly include statistical analysis or machine learning methods, which are based on historical meteorological element data and photovoltaic power plant output power data, but none of them involve cloud image data. Ineffective
Some foreign scholars predict the solar irradiance based on meteorological satellite cloud images to estimate cloud movement, but its temporal and spatial resolution is relatively low. Cloud image data with Earth-height spatio-temporal resolution

Method used

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  • Photovoltaic power prediction method based on ground-based cloud chart
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  • Photovoltaic power prediction method based on ground-based cloud chart

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Embodiment Construction

[0126] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0127] A method for forecasting photovoltaic power based on a ground-based cloud image is provided, the method comprising the following steps:

[0128] Step 1: Cloud movement estimation;

[0129] Step 2: Predict the ground irradiance;

[0130] Step 3: Establish a comprehensive photoelectric conversion model;

[0131] Step 4: Perform photovoltaic power prediction.

[0132] Described step 1 comprises the following steps:

[0133] Step 1-1: Determine the position of the sun on the image;

[0134] In described step 1-1, determine the sun position on the image with zenith angle and azimuth angle;

[0135] Suppose the latitude of the observation site is The declination angle is δ, the hour angle is ω, and the zenith angle and azimuth angle are respectively θ z and gamma s Expressed as:

[0136]

[0137] in:

[0138]

[0139] ω=(t-12)×15° (3)

[01...

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Abstract

The invention provides a photovoltaic power prediction method based on a ground-based cloud chart. The method comprises the following steps: 1) pre-estimating the movement of a cloud cluster; 2) predicting irradiance on the ground; 3) establishing a comprehensive photoelectric conversion model; 4) and carrying out photovoltaic power prediction. A plurality of digital picture processing techniques are comprehensively applied, so that requirements of problems are highlighted, pertinency and practicality are high, and combined with the traditional statistical method, the photovoltaic power prediction method provides effective technical support and method reference for a photovoltaic power refinement prediction; models are established with multi-steps based on synthesizing of multi-factors; key links in the photovoltaic prediction field are all included in the description of the method, so that universality and robustness are high; in order to combine concrete scenes and application objects used during usage, adjustment parameters are reserved in some links, so that operation is convenient and prediction effect is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of new energy photovoltaic power generation, and in particular relates to a method for predicting photovoltaic power based on ground-based cloud images. Background technique [0002] In recent years, large-scale photovoltaic power plants have been connected to the power grid. Due to the randomness and volatility of the output power of photovoltaic power generation, it has affected the safety, stability and economic operation of the power grid. Accurately predict the output power of photovoltaic power plants, provide important decision support for power dispatching, and coordinate the coordination of conventional power and photovoltaic power generation, which not only reduces the operating cost of the power system, but also helps make full use of photovoltaic resources and obtain greater economic benefits benefits and social benefits. [0003] Ground irradiance is one of the main factors affecting the output...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY04S10/54G06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 陈志宝程序周海丁杰朱想王知嘉彭佩佩江星星何洁琼孙檬檬
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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