This invention discloses a method for predicting the application volume of inter-provincial high-
voltage direct current (HVDC) channels based on multi-source fusion and probability, belonging to the field of
data processing technology. The method includes the following steps: S1, determining the prediction period and basic parameters; S2, determining the final available capacity based on the basic parameters; S3, calculating energy priority based on the final available capacity; S4, constructing a
pass rate prediction model based on the final available capacity; S5, determining the output results for the prediction period based on the
pass rate prediction model and energy priority. This invention is the first to model
channel capacity calculation as a deterministic
optimization problem with physical constraints, combining a probabilistic correction factor for meteorological risk to achieve a
hybrid modeling of
determinism and stochasticity, supporting risk attribution, outperforming black-box prediction, and improving the application
pass rate.