This invention relates to the field of fire monitoring technology, and more specifically to a method for dynamic
risk assessment of
grassland fires. The method includes: acquiring multi-
source data such as historical
active fire points,
satellite remote sensing, digital
terrain, and
grassland distribution data for the monitoring area; preprocessing
active fire points in the
grassland distribution data as positive samples with time attributes, generating fire
impact areas through
DBSCAN clustering, constructing negative samples with time distributions consistent with the positive samples from non-
impact areas, merging them to form a total grassland fire sample and dividing it into training and testing sets. Based on the time attributes of the samples,
remote sensing factors,
tassel transformation components, and
terrain factors within the time window before the assessment date are extracted as features. These features are input into an XGBoost model for training, and hyperparameters are optimized using grid search and five-fold cross-validation. Through iterative training and
verification using multiple
time windows, the time window with optimal accuracy is determined. Five typical dates in 2024 are selected, and the optimal model and window are used to conduct grassland
fire risk assessment, outputting a fire
occurrence probability grid; based on historical
fire point clustering characteristics, a grading interval is determined, classifying the probability into five risk levels: extremely high, high, medium, low, and extremely low. This method can dynamically assess grassland
fire risk on different dates in near real-time and visualize risk areas, providing support for disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making.