The invention provides a method for estimating if a patient suffering from Chronic Obstructive
Pulmonary Disease (
COPD) is approaching an
exacerbation. Data with connected data indicative of levels of blood
oxygen saturation obtained from the patient and their respective time of measurements are received, and a processor executes an
algorithm involving: 1) calculating a statistical measure, e.g. a regression, of the level of blood
oxygen saturation data taking into account available data within a time window with a limited length back in time, e.g. 30 days back in time, and 2) estimating if the patient is approaching an
exacerbation by comparing a value obtained from said statistical measure to a reference value. Finally, an output indicative of a result of said
estimation is generated. The method can ensure that
COPD patients, e.g. in tele homecare, are properly treated before suffering from a severe
exacerbation that could necessitate hospitalization. The
COPD patient can easily measure blood
oxygen saturation with an oxygen meter, and the
algorithm can be executed on a
mobile phone, a PC, on a
server in contact with the patient via the interne, or on a dedicated oxygen meter device.