A method for optimizing refunds for suspected or detected fraudulent transactions includes receiving a
chargeback analysis request for a potential
chargeback transaction from a merchant or a
payment processor, extracting identifying information of transactions associated with the
chargeback transaction from the chargeback analysis request, searching for a chargeback analysis profile in a profile
database, determining whether the chargeback analysis profile exists in the profile
database, upon determining that the chargeback analysis profile does not exist in the profile
database, obtaining a new fraud analysis profile, determining, based on the chargeback analysis profile, a first probability that the potential chargeback transaction will result in a chargeback, determining, based on the chargeback analysis profile, a second probability that the potential chargeback transaction will result in a chargeback after a proactive electronic refund transaction, and generating a proactive electronic refund transaction based on the first probability and the second probability.