The invention discloses a regional foreign trade enterprise development prediction and early warning method optimized through a
random forest algorithm, and relates to the technical field of
big data analysis. Comprising the steps of 1, establishing a foreign trade enterprise
database, 2, collecting foreign trade enterprise data, preprocessing the collected data, associating
customs declaration data of all foreign trade enterprises, foreign trade enterprise power data, export amount of the industry to which the foreign trade enterprises belong and trade environment data, performing
standardization processing on the data, and storing the data in a
database; step 2, converting indexes of different orders of magnitude into indexes of the same
order of magnitude, and converting
unstructured data into structured data, and step 3, performing
preliminary analysis and calculation according to the collected foreign trade enterprise data; 4, establishing a regional foreign trade enterprise prediction and
early warning model, predicting the condition according to each index condition, respectively giving different scores, and finally obtaining important foreign trade enterprise early warning levels; 5, introducing a
random forest algorithm into the regional foreign trade enterprise prediction and
early warning model, training historical early warning data, and calculating the early warning levels of the important foreign trade enterprises according to power trade settlement period characteristics. A double-cycle rolling window is adopted to capture short-term fluctuation, and meanwhile, a moon-level window is reserved to recognize tendency risks.