The invention relates to a forecasting method of the treating effect of
interferon on
chronic hepatitis B. The forecasting method comprises the following steps of: collecting information related to
chronic hepatitis B patients; inputting
treatment outcome influencing factors of the patients; dividing the treating effect evaluation into three classes; determining specific scores of all levels of the influencing factors by taking the influencing factors as independent variable and the treating effect as dependent variable and building a rating scale and a model; randomly dividing collected illness cases into a
training set and a
test set, building a rating scale and a model by taking the
training set as a sample, and detecting the accuracy of the rating scale and the model by taking the
test set as a sample; taking the Youden index which is shown as a formula: sensitivity+specificity-1 as the evaluation index of the rating scale and the accurate model performance, and when the Youden index takes a maximum value, prompting that the forecasting performance is optimal; and enabling the forecasting performance to be optimal by adjusting parameters of
mutation rate,
mating rate, sub-algebra generation, and the like of a
genetic algorithm as well as parameters of kernel training parameters,
outlier penalty coefficients, and the like of a
support vector machine.