The application discloses a
new energy station electric quantity prediction method and
system based on a global-local double-layer prediction architecture, and aims at solving problems of insufficient monthly electric quantity prediction data of
new energy stations, large medium and long term
weather prediction errors, and low prediction precision of traditional experience methods, adopts a global-local double-layer
model architecture, a XGBoost global prediction model is constructed by using all
station data in the upper layer, common rules such as seasons, weather, installed capacity, shutdown plan and the like are mined, the
global model output is taken as an enhanced feature, a XGBoost local model is trained in combination with
single station data in the lower layer, and individual characteristics such as
station equipment efficiency and operation and maintenance level are adapted, and a holiday adjustment factor is introduced to post-process and correct the prediction result. The application effectively solves the
small sample modeling problem commonly existing in monthly electric quantity prediction, and significantly improves the monthly electric quantity prediction accuracy of
wind power stations and photovoltaic stations.