The present application relates to the technical field of electronic commerce, and more particularly to a user journey attribution and budget self-optimization method for e-commerce global investment, comprising the following steps: step 1: collecting multi-channel user behavior event streams, taking the difference between the cumulative amount of conversion event condition strength values of the original sequence and the counterfactual residual sequence in the unified
prediction interval as the unified window counterfactual conversion risk drop; step 2: for each target channel, obtaining the net causal attribution coefficient through multi-fold cross fitting double
machine learning; step 3: constructing a cumulative attribution revenue concave utility function for each channel, forming an iterative
closed loop of attribution modeling, causal debiasing and
budget allocation. The present application can finely capture the timing incentive effect and decay characteristics of cross-channel touchpoints, effectively eliminate the
confounding interference of user self-
selection bias on attribution
estimation, and ensure that the long-term cumulative revenue of the
budget allocation strategy gradually approaches the theoretical optimal level in a non-stationary investment environment.