The invention discloses a cluster
wind power plant output prediction-oriented dynamic time-
delay dependency modeling method, which comprises the following steps of: calculating a dynamic time-
delay dependency relationship between
wind power plants, constructing a time-
delay dependency
matrix sequence which changes along with time, and predicting a time-delay dependency matrix of a future time period by using a time-delay dependency matrix prediction model. On the basis,
time sequence features are extracted from historical output, space-time features are extracted from meteorological data, cross-
modal self-adaptive fusion is carried out on a predicted time-delay dependency matrix and multi-source features, and finally a
wind power output predicted value and a
confidence interval thereof are obtained based on a mixed density network. The method provided by the invention can effectively capture the
coupling relation time-varying characteristics generated along with the change of meteorological conditions between the wind power plants, and improves the precision and stability of output prediction.