The application is suitable for the technical field of
geological disaster early warning and
risk assessment, and provides a
landslide threshold estimation method based on an adaptive
hybrid Copula model and an OSFOA
algorithm. The method comprises the following steps: through dynamic detection of the optimal
lag relationship between
landslide displacement and influencing factors and the adaptive
hybrid Copula model, the model can automatically adapt to the complex time-
lag response mechanism and variable
tail dependence characteristics of the
landslide system, without prior assumptions, and has strong generalization ability. The OSFOA
algorithm is introduced to optimize the
hybrid weight, solving the high-dimensional and
nonlinear optimization problem, and improving the model precision and stability. In combination with VaR, CoVaR, dynamic threshold adjustment, Bootstrap
uncertainty analysis and joint
return period calculation, a complete, rigorous and operable risk
early warning system from threshold calculation, risk measurement to uncertainty evaluation is constructed. In the actual landslide case, the multi-level early warning threshold with clear physical meaning and
statistical confidence is successfully output, and the effectiveness and practicability of the method are verified.