This invention discloses an industrial carbon emission
scenario simulation system and method based on multi-
source data fusion, comprising: constructing urban development factors based on multi-dimensional nighttime light data, introducing them together with the quadratic term of GDP into the STIRPAT model to form the ISTIRPAT model for directly calculating municipal-level industrial carbon emissions; using the
random forest algorithm to identify and calculate the density of
industrial land to obtain
industrial land density distribution data; decomposing the aforementioned municipal-level carbon emissions into spatial grid cells through a gridded allocation
mechanism based on the
industrial land density distribution data to generate gridded high-resolution industrial carbon emission distribution data; establishing different development paths based on historical and predicted municipal-level carbon emissions, gridded distribution data, and preset growth rates of driving factors through
scenario analysis, constructing an early warning
probability model, and solving the model using Monte Carlo
simulation to quantify the predicted values of future municipal-level carbon emissions under multiple paths and their probability of exceeding preset peak values, thereby achieving risk early warning.