This invention provides a method for analyzing the cost uncertainty of a
satellite constellation considering parameter uncertainties, comprising: estimating the total launch
mass of the satellites, calculating the total launch
mass of the
satellite constellation based on the
dry weight of a single
satellite, the number of satellites, the
wet weight to
dry weight ratio, and the
mass of the satellite
distributor; calculating the launch segment cost, determining the number of launches based on the ratio of the total launch mass to the
launch vehicle's
carrying capacity, and calculating the total launch segment cost in conjunction with the price per launch; calculating the
space segment cost, calculating the R&D cost and production cost separately, wherein the R&D cost is calculated based on the
dry weight of the single satellite, and the production cost is calculated based on the dry weight of the satellites, the number of satellites, and the
learning curve effect; calculating the total cost, adding the
space segment cost and the launch segment cost to obtain the total cost of the
satellite constellation; and assessing the uncertainty of cost parameters, constructing a Jacobian matrix of the total cost with respect to the uncertainty parameters, and analyzing the quantitative
impact of the input parameter uncertainty propagating to the total cost
estimation result.