This invention belongs to the field of
educational data analysis and
machine learning technology, specifically disclosing a method for analyzing performance influencing factors and causal effects that integrates Direct
Machine Learning (DML) and Conformal Prediction (CP). This method introduces the orthogonalized causal
estimation mechanism of dual
machine learning into the analysis of performance influencing factors, and combines it with the interval construction idea of conformal prediction to achieve the identification of performance influencing factors and the evaluation of causal effect intervals. By constructing
outcome variable models and treatment variable models, the influence of high-dimensional covariates is eliminated through residualization, and orthogonal scores are used to achieve robust
estimation of the causal effects of candidate factors on performance variables. Furthermore, the orthogonal scores are used as a measure of inconsistency in conformal prediction to determine the acceptance region of candidate causal effect parameters, thereby generating causal effect intervals. This method has good
interpretability and practicality in identifying performance influencing factors, estimating causal effects, and quantifying intervals.