The invention provides an
orbit forecasting method and device based on atmospheric density dynamic correction. The
orbit forecasting method comprises the following steps: determining a plurality of target failure satellites and corresponding TLE
orbit data from a failure
satellite set; identifying an orbit control time period corresponding to the target failure
satellite, so as to determine a real
ballistic coefficient corresponding to the target failure
satellite based on TLE orbit data of the target failure satellite in a non-orbit control time period; iteratively solving a correction coefficient
time series data set according to a real
ballistic coefficient corresponding to the target failure satellite and by combining the density-to-position partial derivative equation set; and through a correction coefficient prediction model obtained through pre-training, based on the correction coefficient
time sequence data set and the spatial environment index, predicting an atmospheric density dynamic correction coefficient corresponding to the target moment, and carrying out
orbit prediction to obtain
satellite orbit ephemeris prediction data corresponding to the to-be-predicted satellite. According to the method, the orbit forecasting precision can be improved by using a more accurate atmospheric density dynamic correction coefficient.