The invention provides a non-singular semi-analytical method for forecasting a low-thrust perturbation
orbit. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, establishing a
Gaussian variational equation for describing spring equinox orbital element evolution under small
thrust control based on a periodic small thrust
hypothesis; thirdly, constructing a long-term equation and a short-period term based on the average spring equinox
orbital elements, performing large-step integration on the long-term equation to obtain a flat root, and then performing orbital element correction through the short-period term to finish high-precision orbital forecasting; and finally, establishing an analytic
form error estimation model through a semi-major-axis second-order long-term equation, and using the analytic
form error estimation model to evaluate
orbit forecast errors. The semi-analytic low-thrust
orbit forecasting method provided by the invention achieves good balance between calculation efficiency and precision, avoids the problem of singularity, and is suitable for high-precision forecasting of any low-thrust elliptical orbit; the error
estimation model provided by the invention can effectively quantify the prediction error and enhance the reliability of the
orbit prediction results of most small eccentricity rate on-orbit satellites.