The invention discloses an oil-gas-water interface prediction method and
system based on a time-lapse earthquake, and belongs to the technical field of development-earthquake
processing interpretation. The prediction method comprises the following steps: constructing a three-dimensional
porosity model; establishing an original
water saturation model, and determining an original oil-gas-water interface height; determining rock mechanical parameters; based on the three-dimensional
porosity model, the original
water saturation model and the rock mechanical parameters in combination with a time-lapse seismic amplitude difference formula, calculating a
residual value of a model time-lapse seismic amplitude difference and an
observation time-lapse seismic amplitude difference, and searching for an optimal oil-gas-water interface height change and a
porosity value which enable the
residual value to be minimum; according to the optimal oil-gas-water interface height change, the porosity value and the original oil-gas-water interface height, current
water saturation change is predicted, and remaining oil-gas distribution is obtained. By inverting the change of the height of the oil-gas-water interface before and after the time-lapse earthquake, the water saturation change condition of the target
horizon can be obtained at the same time, and the problems that the
nonlinear inversion data calculation amount is large and the result is not convergent are effectively solved.