The invention discloses a PC bridge service state and
vulnerability prediction method based on the Bayesian theory, and relates to the technical field of bridge service state and
vulnerability evaluation, and the method comprises the steps: building a three-dimensional finite
element model of a bridge; key parameters influencing the service state of the bridge are determined, the three-dimensional finite
element model is operated, the mid-span deflection value and the average prestress loss value of each bridge sample at different moments are obtained, and a
database is formed; a GRU proxy model for prediction is obtained through
database training; aiming at a to-be-studied bridge, obtaining an actually-measured midspan deflection measured value of the bridge; using the key parameters of the bridge and the GRU agent model to obtain a mid-span deflection prediction value of the bridge; performing Bayesian parameter
estimation according to the measured value and the predicted value of the mid-span deflection of the bridge, and estimating bridge parameters of the bridge, which conform to
posterior probability distribution; and substituting the estimated bridge parameters conforming to the
posterior probability distribution into the GRU agent model to obtain a time-varying curve of the mid-span deflection value and the prestress average loss value of the bridge, and a time-varying
vulnerability curve of the bridge. According to the method, the relatively accurate bridge key parameters are calculated through Bayesian parameter
estimation, and more accurate prediction can be achieved.