The invention discloses a new unit equipment risk management and control and
spare part demand optimization method and
system, and relates to the technical field of intelligent operation and maintenance, and the method comprises the steps: collecting operation condition signals in real time, constructing a digital twin model of each part of unit equipment, and forming a unified discrete
state vector; performing
feature extraction on the operation condition
signal according to a fixed window, and constructing a
Bayesian network of a hierarchical causal structure in combination with process attributes; performing posterior reasoning on the
Bayesian network through
belief propagation to obtain a fault
posterior probability of a causal node, and calculating a risk
score according to a weight and a consequence cost; and life parameter
estimation is carried out, Monte Carlo
simulation is used to predict the demand quantity, and the optimal
spare part order quantity is calculated in combination with inventory constraints. According to the method, potential risks can be found in time, non-planned shutdown is reduced, inventory redundancy and capital occupation are reduced, and the safety, reliability and economical efficiency of operation of a new unit are improved.