The invention discloses a novel power
system-oriented regional load uncertainty
perception modeling and prediction method, and particularly relates to the technical field of load prediction. According to the method, a three-level structured
influence factor system and an influence relation model are constructed based on distributed
new energy output characteristics, charging and discharging states of an
energy storage device and charging behaviors of an
electric vehicle, and a load uncertainty
influence factor characteristic
library is formed; then, a multi-scale feature representation
library is generated by extracting distribution features, fluctuation features and
time sequence response features; a Bayesian long-short-
term memory network is combined with an attention mechanism to serve as a basic framework, and a regional load uncertainty
perception model is constructed through scene disturbance training,
noise enhancement training and multi-target optimization training; and finally, reasoning and outputting a
load distribution range, a
confidence interval and a fluctuation trend through the model. According to the method, multi-dimensional and precise representation and prediction of regional load uncertainty are realized, and reliable data support is provided for scheduling decisions of a novel power
system.