The invention discloses a method and
system for determining a temperature representative value, and relates to the field of statistics, and the method comprises the steps: carrying out the fitting replacement of abnormal temperature data in one year through employing a cubic interpolation method, carrying out the
smoothing processing through employing
Gaussian filtering, and carrying out the calculation of a temperature representative value; the
temperature difference is calculated, a difference
distance matrix of the temperature change characteristics of different months is obtained by using adaptive
dynamic time warping (Adaptive DTW) and a mean
Euclidean distance, a comprehensive
distance matrix is calculated by combining weight parameters with the Adaptive DTW and the
Euclidean distance, cohesive
hierarchical clustering analysis is performed on the temperature change characteristics, and a plurality of temperature change
modes are obtained; a typical summer temperature month and a typical winter temperature month are determined according to the plurality of temperature change
modes, a daily
extreme temperature difference is obtained from the typical summer temperature month and the typical winter temperature month, and probability distribution of the daily
extreme temperature difference in different return periods is obtained by using a generalized extreme value
distribution model for the daily
extreme temperature difference; according to the probability distribution result, temperature action representative values of different return periods are obtained. According to the invention, the temperature action representative value can be accurately obtained.