The invention belongs to the field of
geological disaster prediction, and particularly provides a reservoir
landslide displacement prediction method based on dynamic
lag recognition and
fuzzy entropy optimization, which comprises the following steps: acquiring and preprocessing
landslide time sequence monitoring data; combining the distributed
lag nonlinear model with the maximum information coefficient, dynamically analyzing the
lag relationship between the displacement and the rainfall and
reservoir water level through a sliding window, outputting a self-adaptive lag stage and constructing a lag
feature set; adaptively decomposing the displacement sequence by using variation mode
decomposition of
fuzzy entropy optimization, determining the optimal
mode number according to the minimum
fuzzy entropy, and reconstructing the intrinsic mode function into trend, period and random items; the method comprises the following steps: extracting local features of a multi-lag feature space through CNN, inputting reconstructed displacement components into GRU to capture time dependence, introducing an attention mechanism to weight a key
time step, and outputting a predicted value and a
confidence interval through
quantile regression; according to the method, dynamic lag capture, adaptive
decomposition and CNN-GRU-Attention are fused, and high-precision and high-robustness prediction is realized.