This application belongs to the field of power
system management, specifically disclosing a method for predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of charging load probabilistically, taking into account the random fluctuations in commuting demand. This application constructs a multi-dimensional travel strategy set to simulate users' comprehensive decisions regarding energy, time, and space. Uncertainty is introduced from the commuting
demand side, and Monte Carlo sampling is used to generate demand fluctuation samples, fundamentally characterizing the random fluctuations in load. A utility evaluation model is constructed based on cumulative prospect theory to correct for users' bounded rationality characteristics. A multi-layered nested
discrete choice model is adopted, decomposing the decision into three levels: charging, departure, and
route, and iterating to
traffic network equilibrium using a
heuristic algorithm. In the equilibrium state, the
strategy selection ratio is combined with the demand sample, input into the dynamic
traffic network model, and the spatiotemporal probability distribution of charging load is output. This achieves more accurate prediction of the spatiotemporal distribution of
electric vehicle charging load probabilistically during
evening peak hours, providing a scientific basis for charging
facility planning and grid dispatching.