The invention relates to a shifting video code rate regulation method based on experience qualitative forecast. According to the invention, a sending end divides an encoding video speed rate into four grades, when a mobile terminal user requires a video business, the scale of the initial code rate of a video is middle, and thus, a QoE prediction model is periodically utilized to calculate a user taste value; the predicted QoE value and the presupposed QoE threshold value are compared, if the user experience quality is lower than the threshold value, and the corresponding adjustment is performed according to the network congestion indication and encoding video speed rate fedback by a receiving end in two periods; and the code rate grade of the next period is output until the request is finished, wherein the QoE prediction model is positioned on a video server side, and the decision tree structure is improved through training a plurality of gradients. The shifting video code rate regulation method provided by the invention can be used for solving a problem that in the current code rate regulation method, the video quality subjective feeling of users can not be considered, a network resource is fully utilized, meanwhile, the generation of network congestion is avoided or slacked, and the taste quality of the users is effectively improved.