The invention provides a farmland ecological meteorological monitoring method and device, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a rainfall risk
time sequence model based on historical daily scale
air temperature and rainfall data; the current spring effective accumulated temperature is obtained and compared with the historical same period, and a climate anomaly factor is obtained; on the basis of the abnormal factors and the current observation sequence, the most probable hidden state at the current moment is determined through the forward probability, rolling prediction is conducted through the corrected
transfer matrix from the current moment to the prediction moment, and the rainfall
risk probability from the current moment to the prediction moment is obtained; comparing the rainfall
risk probability with the soil
moisture bearing capacity of the farmland to be monitored, and obtaining the
risk probability actually borne by the farmland
ecosystem as a first risk probability; based on real-time soil conditions and
land parcel characteristics, estimating the probability of ecological risks caused by farming adjustment behaviors; a risk driving value is obtained based on the first risk probability, an ecological cost value is obtained based on the
ecological risk probability, and when the risk driving value is larger than the ecological cost value, a final farming decision is generated, and the farming decision behavior is dynamically adjusted based on the current real-time climate through
deep processing and association of the farmland ecological meteorological data.