The invention discloses a method and device for predicting a ground leakage fault of a train power supply system. The steps of the method include: S1. obtaining an output signal during the movement of the train power supply system in real time; S2. identifying whether there is a ground leakage fault according to the output signal obtained in real time, If a fault is identified, obtain the target parameter value of the power supply system under the current fault state, and obtain the fault data of the target parameter value, otherwise obtain the degradation data of the target parameter value; S3. Obtain the fault data of the target parameter value within the specified time period respectively , degradation data, obtain the degradation trajectory of the target parameter value, and evaluate the degradation trajectory of the target parameter value to predict the fault state of the power supply system; the device includes a signal acquisition module, a fault real-time monitoring module and a fault state prediction module. The invention has the advantages of simple implementation method, capable of realizing ground leakage fault monitoring and fault state prediction of the power supply system, and has the advantages of high prediction accuracy.