The invention discloses a dynamic trajectory prediction method and
system based on a space-time causal atlas, and relates to the crossing field of
artificial intelligence, geographic information systems and
edge computing. According to the method, a space-time causal map including physical connection, function association and causal relationship is constructed, and road network topological data and a causal rule base are fused and dynamically updated; utilizing a multi-
scale space-time sensing module to extract features from microcosmic, mesoscopic and macroscopic scales respectively; by means of a differentiable
causal reasoning module, trajectory prediction is decomposed into a structural causal effect, an environment regulation effect and an individual heterogeneous effect, and robustness is enhanced in combination with anti-factual reasoning; and realizing cross-city knowledge migration and distributed training based on a federated migration learning framework. The
system comprises a space-time causal map construction module, a multi-scale
feature extraction module, a
causal reasoning prediction module, a federal transfer learning module and a result interpretation module. According to the method, the problems of precision attenuation, insufficient
interpretability and poor cross-domain adaptability of a traditional method are solved, the precision,
interpretability and cross-domain adaptability of trajectory prediction are improved, and the method is suitable for scenes such as intelligent traffic and automatic driving.