The invention discloses a fracture activity prediction method and
system based on numerical
simulation, and relates to the technical field of fracture activity prediction. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, acquiring geological data,
seismic wave velocity,
gravity anomaly,
magnetic anomaly and image data and preprocessing the data, secondly, predicting the probability of fracture activity by using an optimized
Bayesian network model, visualizing a prediction result, and finally, performing
uncertainty analysis according to the prediction result. According to the method, multiple data sources are integrated, complex preprocessing and analysis are carried out, advanced numerical
simulation and optimization technologies are combined, an accurate prediction model is established, the prediction capability of the model is further improved through an innovative
Bayesian network optimization and integration method, meanwhile, real-time
monitoring data are dynamically fused, and the prediction efficiency is improved. And continuously iterating and updating to reflect the latest condition, and finally providing a detailed prediction result and
uncertainty analysis thereof, thereby providing efficient and accurate decision support for monitoring and prevention of fracture activity.