77 results about "Earth crust" patented technology

The invention discloses a geological monitoring data processing method and system based on multiple neural networks, and relates to the technical field of geological monitoring data processing, and the method comprises the steps: employing a dynamic heterogeneous neural network fusion architecture, and carrying out the classification routing processing of various types of geological monitoring input data, obtaining a corresponding first local space feature, a second fault topological structure feature and a third time sequence feature vector; performing optimization training on the multi-task prediction network by using a joint loss function with geological physical constraints, the main task network being used for predicting an earth crust displacement field, and the auxiliary task network being used for predicting an earth crust stress field to obtain an optimized fusion model; based on the optimized fusion model, performing reasoning prediction on the new geological monitoring input data, and outputting a comprehensive geological risk assessment result; through the dynamic heterogeneous neural network fusion architecture, various geological monitoring input data are classified and routed, and the problem that multi-source heterogeneous geological data cannot be effectively processed through a traditional method is solved.

A design method for preventing and controlling water inrush catastrophe in tunnels and techniques for optimizing actual tunnel construction, specifically: discretizing calculation model into material points, setting virtual boundary layers outside boundary of calculation model; selecting size of horizon of material points to form neighborhood matrix of material points; making crustal stress equivalent to stress boundary condition, making karst cave water pressure equivalent to normal pressure, and converting displacement constraint and tunnel support into displacement boundary conditions; solving speed and displacement of material point, determining whether bonds of all material points meet failure condition, recording local damage situations; after initial balance calculation is stable, simulating tunnel construction process by using material point dormancy method; and according to physical values of optimization parameters of actual tunnel construction obtained by simulation results that meet the requirements of water inrush catastrophe prevention and control, implementing the optimized actual tunnel construction.

The present disclosure relates to the technical field of stability control of surrounding rock of tunnelling, and provides an excavation compensation method for tunnelling in deep rock engineering, including: acquiring an engineering geological information of the tunnelling in deep rock engineering; determining an engineering hazard type based on the engineering geological information; determining an excavation compensation support strategy for the surrounding rock of the tunnelling in deep rock engineering based on the engineering hazard type; and performing a supplementary support control on the surrounding rock of the tunnelling in deep rock engineering based on the excavation compensation support strategy. Through the supplementary support strategy, the difference value between a radial stress of the surrounding rock of the tunnelling in deep rock engineering and an initial crustal stress can be reduced to within a preset approximate value range, further effectively preventing a stress concentration phenomenon occurred in a tangential stress.

The invention discloses an ultra-deep reflection imaging method based on passive source seismic data and a related device, and relates to the technical field of earth depth structure imaging, and the method comprises the following steps: firstly, for original continuous seismic waveform data, intercepting seismic waveform data with a first arrival of a P wave and a non-arrival of an S wave, and carrying out the preprocessing of the data, so as to obtain a far earthquake event data segment; the method comprises the following steps: firstly, analyzing and identifying a far earthquake event with a high signal-to-noise ratio by using a time-frequency-wavenumber domain, removing data which are greatly influenced by noise, and then, reconstructing a reflection wave field of a high-quality far earthquake data fragment by using a multi-dimensional deconvolution technology, and carrying out convolution on a seismic source wavelet to obtain ultra-deep reflection wave field data. And finally, performing reflection imaging processing in combination with velocity analysis and superposition imaging technologies, optimizing the analysis capability of a deep reflection interface, and finally obtaining an earth deep reflection imaging profile, so that a continuous structure interface extending from the shallow earth crust to the deep mantle can be clearly revealed, and coupling characteristics between shallow and deep earth structures can be effectively captured.

The invention discloses a three-dimensional elastic block-fault motion deformation coupling model construction method and system. Comprising the following steps: acquiring geodetic survey data of earth crust movement between earthquakes and an active fault distribution map, and dividing different active blocks; the movable blocks are associated with geodetic measurement data through spatial position attributes, and motion features of different blocks are distinguished; adjacent boundaries are extracted to serve as modeling boundary faults, and discretization processing is carried out; constructing a three-dimensional elastic block-fault motion deformation coupling model including block rotation, internal strain, fault normal velocity discontinuity counteracting, inclined fault positive slippage and negative dislocation response; inverting parameters of the three-dimensional elastic block-fault motion deformation coupling model by adopting a constrained least square method; and according to the coupling coefficient, identifying the potential pregnancy and earthquake concave-convex body on the fault. According to the method, a more complete inter-earthquake three-dimensional elastic model is established, and support is provided for accurate research of active fault coupling characteristics, recognition of gestational earthquake concave-convex bodies and judgment of major earthquake dangerous areas.

The invention provides a method and device for cooperatively monitoring the sea level based on GNSS and InSAR, and a storage medium, and relates to the technical field of sea level monitoring. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring point data representing land vertical motion from a GNSS base station which is co-located with a tide station along a coastline, acquiring InSAR surface data representing earth surface deformation from a satellite, acquiring relative sea level change parameters, converting GNSS and InSAR into a same coordinate system, fusing the GNSS and InSAR to obtain land vertical motion parameters, and separating absolute sea level change parameters; and constructing and optimizing an earth crust motion-sea level coupling numerical model based on prior knowledge and the like, and predicting multi-source observation data to obtain a sea level change result. Multi-source data are fused, the influence of land motion is separated, the monitoring precision and coverage are improved, and the influence of natural and human activities on the sea level can be quantified.

The invention discloses a physical simulation method and device for seismic response certainty of an urban underground rail transit network, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a mixed seismic source model based on the active fault parameters and kinematic parameters of a target region, the seismic source model integrates a low-wavenumber deterministic slip component and a high-wavenumber random slip component on a fault fracture surface to generate a broadband seismic wave field source reflecting the physical process of a seismic source; the constructed seismic source model is used as input, a regional crustal velocity structure model is combined, propagation of seismic waves in a layered geological medium is simulated through a frequency-wavenumber domain method, and a seismic oscillation space-time field is obtained through calculation; and establishing a finite element model of the urban underground rail transit network, applying the seismic oscillation time-space field as non-consistent seismic oscillation input to the finite element model, and solving through dynamic time-history analysis to obtain the dynamic response of the whole underground rail transit network in the earthquake process. According to the invention, a complete physical chain from seismic source fracture to structural response can be reproduced.

The invention discloses a new-type barite deposit mineralization mode construction method based on a same sedimentary fault. The method belongs to the field of geological exploration and mineral resource prediction, and comprises the following steps: analyzing the earth crust cracking activity history of an earthquake-Hangjian broken basin, and recovering a basin'checkerboard 'structure prototype; by means of field geological survey and research, drilling engineering, geophysics, remote sensing geological big data and the like, north-east-east-direction and north-west-direction co-sedimentary fault networks are identified and modeled, and a deep metallogenic fluid rising and jet flow channel is determined; the metallogenic process is concluded into a hydrothermal jet flow stage and an underwater gravity flow deposition stage, deep fluid is revealed to rise, jet flow and precipitate along a fault, and an ore-rich zone of a composite seabed fan body group is formed; and a geochemical prospecting prediction model combining trace element and sulfur isotope characteristics is established. The method systematically clarifies a coupling mechanism of ore control of the same sedimentary fault, ore-forming fluid migration and gravity flow deposition, and provides a theoretical basis and a technical means for prospecting prediction of the barite deposit in the Hendan-Hangjian fault basin.

The present invention provides a crustal spectral unit optimization modeling method suitable for simulating strong earthquake wave fields in complex terrain conditions, which relates to the field of earthquake engineering. The method comprises determining the terrain parameters of the study area; determining the grid refinement factor based on the wave velocity structure parameters of the study area, and obtaining the minimum distance of the wave velocity isosurface from the bottom; determining the location of the crustal spectral unit refinement transition layer; determining the total number of three-dimensional units before grid refinement based on the location of the crustal spectral unit refinement transition layer; using hexahedral units to mesh the entire area; refining the shallow crust model based on the number of crustal spectral unit layers above the transition layer; calculating the grid quality, counting the number of crustal spectral units to obtain the expected value of the crustal spectral units, and comparing it with the estimated value. The present invention can solve the quality problem of spectral units when modeling crustal structure in areas with complex terrain conditions such as high mountains and canyons, while minimizing the computational degrees of freedom, and achieving stable and low-cost simulation of earthquake motion based on the spectral element method.

The utility model relates to the technical field of seepage heat transfer simulation, and discloses a high-efficiency seepage heat transfer simulation device in a high-temperature and high-pressure environment, which comprises a supporting mechanism for stable supporting, and a seepage sealing assembly for simulating a rock-soil layer in an earth crust is arranged at the upper end of the supporting mechanism. The upper end of the seepage sealing assembly is provided with a sealing heating monitoring assembly used for heating and monitoring fluid to be percolated, and the upper end of the sealing heating monitoring assembly is provided with a pressurizing mechanism used for pressurizing the fluid to be percolated in the sealing heating monitoring assembly. Simulation operation of seepage fluid is achieved, damage to equipment under the high-pressure condition is avoided, the driving mechanism accurately adjusts pressure through gear transmission, stable operation of a pressurization system and coordinated operation of the whole system are ensured, the precision of seepage and heat transfer simulation is improved, and the operability and safety of experiments are effectively improved.

The utility model provides an earth structure demonstration model device, which relates to the technical field of earth structure demonstration and comprises a sphere, and the sphere is divided into an outer layer used for representing the earth crust, an interlayer used for representing the earth curtain and a central layer used for representing the earth core from outside to inside. The sphere is divided into the outer layer used for representing the earth crust, the interlayer used for representing the earth curtain and the center layer used for representing the earth core, and the outer layer, the interlayer and the center layer are equally divided into two halves, so that during display, the outer layer, the interlayer and the center layer on the two sides can be selected to be separated so as to be convenient for personnel to explain the earth structure; the outer layer, the interlayer and the center layer on the same side can be completely separated, further explanation by personnel is facilitated, students can more intuitively understand the explanation in a splitting mode after combination, and understanding of the students is facilitated.

A mine digital model construction method based on a three-dimensional point cloud database is disclosed. Mine data resources are collected, valid coordinate point position information is extracted according to point cloud data extraction standards, and a mine three-dimensional point cloud database is established; a model of rock strata boundary surfaces, mining areas, and tunnels is constructed, a surface three-dimensional geological model is constructed, and a mine three-dimensional geological model is further constructed; and division into grids is performed to obtain a mine extraction inversion digital model. According to the method, a mine three-dimensional point cloud database can be obtained, and various identified rock strata topographies, positions of mining areas and tunnels, fault morphologies, and surface morphologies can be restored; mine extraction inversion digital models having different precisions can be constructed, a foundation is laid for crustal stress field inversion, and a reliable basis is provided for mine disaster prevention and control.

The application discloses a kind of simulation devices of multiple terraces of strike-slip fault dislocation, including experiment table, combination experiment box being set on experiment table, sliding assembly being set at the bottom of combination experiment box for adjusting position, lifting assembly being connected on combination experiment box for adjusting space parameter and rainfall assembly being set above combination experiment box for simulating rainfall, by the present application, combination experiment box is adjusted in multiple times lifting during strike-slip fault simulation process, to simulate the complex lifting history of crust in nature, and the formation of river terrace controlled by it, the structure of the present application is simple, easy to operate, easy to implement.

The utility model discloses an earth crust deformation detection device convenient to install, which comprises a top frame, two sliding blocks are connected in the top frame in a sliding manner, two convex buttons are connected in the two sliding blocks in a sliding manner, and clamping holes are uniformly formed in the outer part of the top frame. The two supporting rods are separated, meanwhile, the two clamping blocks are clamped in the two bases respectively, then the inserting rods jointly penetrate through the bases and the circular holes in the clamping blocks, the clamping blocks are clamped and limited in the bases, the top frame can be erected and assembled conveniently and rapidly, meanwhile, the clamping plates are shifted left and right, and the top frame can be conveniently and rapidly erected and assembled. The two clamping plates can jointly clamp and limit the detection device body, the sliding blocks are synchronously controlled to slide and move in the top frame when the clamping plates are shifted, the sliding blocks are clamped in the clamping holes through the convex buttons in the process, the sliding blocks are limited after sliding in the top frame, the convenience of the whole device is improved, and the detection efficiency is improved. In the process, the whole device can be quickly assembled without using a wrench tool.

The invention discloses a sedimentary basin well-free area earth heat flow prediction method, device and equipment, and the method comprises the steps: determining the thickness of each stratum layer of a sedimentary basin well-free area based on seismic data, a sedimentary cover layer, a base structure and earth crust layering features; determining the rock heat generation rate of the sedimentary cap layer and the wrinkled substrate based on the rock core sample and / or natural gamma logging data of the basin mature exploration area; based on the seismic longitudinal wave velocity, determining rock heat generation rates of the lower earth crust and the middle earth crust; determining the rock heat generation rate of the upper earth crust based on the rock heat generation rate of the wrinkled substrate and the rock heat generation rate of the middle earth crust; based on the valance heat flow values of the upheaval area and the depression area of the basin mature exploration area and the structural evolution characteristics of the basin where the sedimentary basin well-free area is located, determining the valance heat flow of the sedimentary basin well-free area; according to the method, a new thought is provided for finely depicting the current ground temperature field characteristics of the sedimentary basin well drilling deficient region.

The invention discloses a metal intercalation boron-carbon superconducting material GeB2C2 under normal pressure and a preparation method of the metal intercalation boron-carbon superconducting material GeB2C2. The material has a two-dimensional Kagome lattice structure, the space group is P6 / mmm (No.191), the lattice constants are a = b = 2.732, and c = 16.784. Through calculation and prediction of a first principle, the material has a superconducting transition temperature of about 48 K under a normal pressure (0 GPa) condition, and is dynamically stable. The superconducting mechanism is derived from a strong electroacoustic coupling effect, and the coupling constant lambda is about 1.64. The material is composed of Ge, B and C elements rich in earth crust, the raw materials are easy to obtain, the cost is low, and the large-scale preparation potential is achieved. Compared with a traditional normal-pressure superconducting material, the material disclosed by the invention has a relatively high superconducting transition temperature; compared with a high-voltage superconductor, a high-voltage environment is not needed, and the preparation and application threshold is remarkably reduced. The material can be applied to the fields of high-performance superconducting filters, superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors, small superconducting magnets and the like, and has important scientific research values and good practical application prospects.

1. The name of this design product: Jigsaw puzzle (earth crust). 2. Purpose of this design product: used as a learning puzzle toy. 3. The key point of the design of this product lies in its shape. 4. The picture or photo that best illustrates the design points: Assembly state diagram 1.

The invention provides a satellite-based earthquake early warning method and device, electronic equipment and a storage medium, and relates to the field of satellite monitoring. The satellite-based earthquake early warning method provided by the invention comprises the following steps: determining initial crustal deformation data of a target monitoring area corresponding to an initial satellite; under the condition that the initial crustal deformation data is greater than preset crustal deformation data, determining a plurality of target satellites corresponding to the initial crustal deformation data and acquiring first radar image information corresponding to the plurality of target satellites; determining a plurality of earth crust deformation differences based on the plurality of pieces of first radar image information and second radar image information corresponding to the initial satellite; and based on the plurality of earth crust deformation differences, determining a target terminal and generating earthquake early warning information, and sending the earthquake early warning information to the target terminal. According to the invention, the earthquake prediction efficiency and accuracy can be improved.

The application provides a crust deformation research and analysis system and method based on GNSS data, relates to the technical field of crust deformation monitoring and research, and comprises a hardware subsystem and a software subsystem; the hardware subsystem comprises a GNSS receiving module, a data storage module, a communication transmission module and a power supply module which cooperate with each other, and is used for realizing the collection, local storage and remote stable transmission of GNSS data; the software subsystem runs on a terminal device and comprises a data preprocessing module, a data solving module, an analysis module and a visual display module which are sequentially associated and cooperate with each other, and is used for realizing an integrated analysis process of GNSS original data preprocessing, data solving, crust deformation characteristic analysis and result visual display. The application can realize the integration of GNSS data collection, processing, analysis and display, improve the data processing efficiency, simplify the operation process, and provide convenient technical support for crust deformation research.

The invention discloses a method for multi-source data joint identification and inversion of a middle and lower earth crust high conductor, and relates to the technical field of geophysical exploration. The method for multi-source data joint identification and inversion of the middle and lower earth crust high conductor mainly comprises the following steps: carrying out potential field separation on Bouguer gravity anomaly data to obtain residual gravity anomaly, regional gravity anomaly and field source depth, and further determining earth crust residual gravity anomaly and middle and lower earth crust density disturbance characteristics; and calculating residual gravity low anomalies reflecting the middle and lower earth crust high conductors in the research area, delineating plane distribution of the middle and lower earth crust high conductors, and performing random sub-domain three-dimensional automatic inversion for the residual gravity low anomalies to obtain a three-dimensional space distribution form of the middle and lower earth crust high conductors. By implementing the multi-source data combined identification and inversion method for the mid-lower earth crust high conductor provided by the invention, the mid-lower earth crust high conductor can be rapidly and effectively identified and inverted, and the three-dimensional space distribution of the mid-lower earth crust high conductor can be obtained.

This invention discloses a method for quantifying the relationship between the heterogeneity of altered crystalline crust and thermal anomalies. The method includes constructing a geological model of the heterogeneous crystalline crust, where different alteration layers are marked; defining and setting the thermal properties of the different alteration layers to obtain heterogeneity parameters; classifying the degree of alteration into several levels based on the geological characteristics of the alteration layers to obtain alteration degree parameters; establishing a quantitative relationship between alteration degree and thermal properties parameters, and obtaining thermal conductivity variation curves for different altered rocks through experiments; constructing a thermal conduction model based on the Fourier heat conduction equation, and introducing the heterogeneity and alteration degree parameters into the thermal conduction model to dynamically adjust the thermal conductivity of each alteration region. By introducing a heterogeneous crust model and alteration degree parameters, the accuracy of calculating the relationship between crustal thickness heterogeneity and surface thermal anomalies is significantly improved.

The invention relates to the technical field of geology, in particular to a geological density information stripping determination method and device, electronic equipment and a medium, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining surface observation data of a target area; the earth surface observation data are input into the stripping model, the stripping model outputs density distribution of a plurality of material layers of a target area, a lower interface of an earth surface shallow layer model of the stripping model target area starts to extend downwards, a new interface in each extension and a lower interface of a previous material layer form a new material layer, and for each material layer, the density distribution of a plurality of material layers in the stripping model target area is determined; performing density filling on the material layer according to the global crustal structure model, optimizing the density distribution of the material layer until the geoid of the material layer is matched with the benchmark of the earth surface observation data, and continuing to extend downwards until the downward extending distance reaches the target distance; and generating geological density information of the target area according to the density distribution of the plurality of material layers. Therefore, the problem that geological density information measured by related technologies is not accurate enough is solved.

Disclosed are methodology and apparatus for freezing the exterior crust of products, such as food products, in a manner that does not cause the exterior of the product to adhere to the surface on which it is placed during or after the freezing.

The invention provides a mapping method of a geochemical map of rock exposed out of earth crust, and belongs to the technical field of geochemical mapping of rock. The method comprises the steps of constructing a multi-source database, carrying out step-by-step attribute matching, calculating a weighted average value of geological unit element contents, and generating a geochemical map. According to the method, a multi-source data fusion technology and a step-by-step attribute matching algorithm are utilized to combine relatively low-density rock data with a geological unit structure and geological unit space distribution, a rock geochemical map is finally generated by relying on a GIS technology, the step-by-step matching method follows an objective rule of rock element distribution, and compared with simple matching, the step-by-step matching method has the advantages that the matching efficiency is greatly improved; the assignment precision can be improved, and the existing rock chemical data can be utilized to the maximum extent; public geological map data are compatible, and the data collection cost is reduced; the requirement for the number of samples is greatly reduced, at least dozens of rock sample data are needed, and the drawing is more accurate along with the increase of the types and the number of the samples.

The invention provides a fracture blocking rate inversion method based on GNSS earth crust deformation observation and elastic dislocation theory constraint, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a fracture three-dimensional model and an elastic dislocation constraint model, and calculating a fracture blocking rate. Through multi-period result comparison, strain field verification and earthquake activity verification, a high-risk region of pregnancy and earthquake can be identified. According to the method, the GNSS earth crust deformation observation elastic dislocation theory is adopted to constrain the negative dislocation model, and the precision and stability of fracture blocking rate inversion are remarkably improved. According to the invention, multiple periods of GNSS data are integrated to realize dynamic inversion, and the evolution trend of the locking state can be captured. According to the method, secondary blocks are finely divided, strain rate field constraints are introduced, locking distribution of a local strain enhancement area is accurately identified, the reliability of judgment of a large earthquake risk area is improved, a fracture high-locking-rate area is defined, through theoretical constraint and multi-source data fusion, the fracture locking rate inversion precision and the dynamic capture capability are improved, and the method is suitable for large-scale popularization and application. And reliable technical support is provided for earthquake risk assessment.

The invention discloses a method and device for calculating a full-crustal extension coefficient based on subcrustal flow and magma invasion recovery, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining geological comprehensive data, such as a seabed seismic survey line and deep reflection multichannel seismic section data, of a target region, carrying out the stratigraphic division according to the geological comprehensive data, constructing a time-depth conversion formula through the drilling and logging data, and carrying out the calculation of the full-crustal extension coefficient. And converting the time profile data into depth domain data. And establishing an earth crust structure model in combination with a stratigraphic division result and related data, calculating a gravity anomaly curve through forward modeling and correcting the model until a preset condition is met so as to obtain density structure distribution of each part of the profile, and extracting the thickness of the earth crust high-density body. And then, according to the abnormal settlement after cracking, the earth crust loss amount is extracted, the current earth crust thickness is recalculated by removing the earth crust high-density body thickness and supplementing the earth crust loss thickness, the corrected earth crust thickness is obtained, and finally the whole earth crust extension coefficient is calculated. According to the method, the influence of bringing-in and taking-out of crustal substances is eliminated, and the accuracy of evaluating the crustal extension change rule is greatly improved.

The application discloses a method, device and equipment for determining crust shortening amount and a storage medium, and belongs to the technical field of geophysical exploration. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring gravity data and geological data of a detection area comprising a compression structure area and a gravity background area; determining a first gravity anomaly integral amount of the detection area based on the gravity data of the detection area; determining a gravity contrast model corresponding to a specified area based on the geological data of the detection area, and further calculating a second gravity anomaly integral amount of the detection area; and calculating the crust shortening amount of the detection area based on the first gravity anomaly integral amount and the second gravity anomaly integral amount. According to the method, the gravity data is combined with the deformation of the compression structure based on the gravity anomaly of the crust compression structure, so that the crust shortening amount can be obtained simply, quickly, accurately and reliably, and reliable prior information can be provided for compression structure research and geophysical structure modeling.

The invention relates to the technical field of applied geology, and discloses a coverage area rock augmentation height quantitative recovery method based on big data, which comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining a clastic zircon sample in a sedimentary basin of a research area, measuring U-Pb age and trace element data of the clastic zircon sample, and constructing a multi-dimensional clastic zircon database; s2, screening the data in the step S1, and removing Th / Ult; 0.1, Legt; the zircon data is 1 ppm, and the zircon from the S-type granite source is excluded. According to the coverage area rock augmentation height quantitative recovery method based on the big data, a technical chain of earth crust thickness inversion-paleo-elevation reconstruction is constructed based on multi-dimensional chipping zircon geochemical data, the denudation preservation state and development potential of mineral resources can be quantitatively analyzed, the method has universal guiding significance for deep prospecting, and the method is suitable for large-scale popularization and application. In the aspects of resource economy evaluation and exploration decision making, direct correlation analysis of denudation amount and buried depth data is realized.

The invention relates to the technical field of mine safety, and discloses an early warning device based on network security, the early warning device based on network security comprises a box body, a mounting seat is fixedly mounted on the inner wall of the bottom of the box body, a safety early warning device is fixedly mounted on the upper surface of the mounting seat, and a positioning assembly is arranged in the box body. The positioning assembly comprises a double-shaft motor, a connecting column and a mounting block. According to the early warning equipment based on network security, in order to avoid the problem that the safety of the early warning equipment is difficult to guarantee after the box body shifts in the earth crust due to the movement of a mountain, a positioning assembly is arranged and is matched with transmission of a matching rack, a transmission sliding block, a transmission rack, a transmission gear II and a transmission gear I in an insertion rod; the mounting block drives the arc-shaped top block to move towards the sharp end of the inserting rod, and the limiting plate rotates outwards in cooperation with the rotating rod, so that the stability of the inserting rod in the soil is improved.

This invention relates to the field of engineering earthquake and disaster prevention engineering technology, and particularly to a method and system for predicting the probability of fault deformation in engineering fault resistance. The method includes acquiring basic data of the target active fault, including the fault's geometric characteristics, kinematic characteristics, upper magnitude limit, recurrence period, elapsed time, focal depth, and deformation width; inputting the basic data as input parameters into a computational model; calculating the fault length based on the fault's geometric characteristics; and constructing a two-dimensional computational grid for along and across the fault. This invention provides a novel probabilistic prediction method for assessing the permanent displacement of the shallow crust caused by fault displacement during large earthquakes, as well as the intense deformation of the shallow crust near the fault. It can provide sub-meter level data on fault-alternating dislocation and cross-fault deformation at important engineering sites under a certain exceedance probability.