The embodiment of the invention provides a
landslide instability time prediction method and product based on
landslide early warning model dynamic selection, and relates to the technical field of
landslide monitoring and early warning. In the embodiment of the invention, the uncertainty of the candidate model is quantified by adopting the Bayesian method, and the most suitable model with the maximum
occurrence probability is objectively selected, so that reliable
instability time probability prediction is provided. For a
continuous monitoring scene, sequential Bayesian updating and
parallel computing are further incorporated into the method, and efficient dynamic updating is allowed to be carried out on
instability time prediction when new
monitoring data are available. According to the prediction method based on integrated
model selection, reasonable balance can be obtained between prediction uncertainty and prediction precision, and the average absolute prediction error of the most probable instability time of prediction is obviously lower than that of a prediction method based on a
single model. In a word, the invention provides a practical and
probabilistic framework to predict the landslide instability time, and aims to support active landslide risk management.