A method for controlling a compression-ignition internal combustion engine includes the following steps: predefining a setpoint combustion point for the compression-ignition internal combustion engine, predefining a calculation model for calculating a probable deviation of a future cycle of the internal combustion engine from the predefined setpoint combustion point while taking an ascertained actual combustion point of a completed cycle of the internal combustion engine into consideration, predefining a mean deviation for the internal combustion engine, operating the internal combustion engine for a first cycle and ascertaining an actual combustion point of the first cycle, calculating a probable deviation of a second cycle, which occurs after the first cycle, of the internal combustion engine from the predefined setpoint combustion point, comparing the calculated probable deviation of the second cycle to the predefined mean deviation, and ascertaining at least one operating variable for operating the internal combustion engine at least during the second cycle as a function of the comparison. In addition, a control device for controlling a compression-ignition internal combustion engine is described.