The invention discloses a satellite non-linear relative movement deviation propagation analysis method. The method comprises steps that a main satellite and a secondary satellite are assigned, a reference satellite absolute track state at the initial time, a two-satellite nominal relative movement state and a probability density function of initial relative movement state deviation are inputted, first-order and second-order state transfer tensors used for analyzing and forecasting a satellite relative movement state and deviation are calculated according to a non-linear relative movement equation considering J2 perturbation, a covariance analysis method is utilized for Gauss distribution, an analytic result is further outputted, otherwise, Gauss and model calculation is utilized, and an analytic result is outputted. A J2 perturbation item and a second-order non-linear item are considered, the method can be utilized for long-time high-precision analysis forecast of relative movement state deviation of two distant satellites, the acquired deviation information can be used for formation satellite bump probability calculation and bump early warning, and the method further has properties of accurate and reasonable design, small method analysis computational complexity and good applicability to actual engineering tasks.