The application discloses a kind of
industrial equipment residual life prediction method and
system based on bayesian updating, the prior model of equipment
degradation process is established by historical
failure data, and initial parameters are obtained using maximum likelihood
estimation;Collect the
condition monitoring data of equipment, after
feature extraction and normalization
processing, form the observation value of degradation amount;Using
particle filtering algorithm and
bayes theorem, the posterior distribution of degradation
model parameters is recursively updated;Through
Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technology, the point estimate,
confidence interval and
failure probability density curve of residual life are output;According to the prediction result, dynamically adjust equipment
maintenance plan, and trigger early warning when
failure probability exceeds preset threshold, provide decision support for
predictive maintenance;The
system corresponds and contains
data acquisition and pretreatment, prior model construction and the like module.The application is fused by probability classification and statistical
inference, improves prediction accuracy, and provides reliable decision basis for equipment
predictive maintenance.