The invention discloses a Bayesian update-based
industrial equipment residual life prediction method and
system, and the method comprises the steps: building a prior model of an equipment
degradation process through historical
failure data, and obtaining an initial parameter through maximum likelihood
estimation; collecting state
monitoring data of the equipment, and performing
feature extraction and normalization
processing to form a degradation amount observation value; carrying out recursive updating on posterior distribution of degradation
model parameters by utilizing a
particle filtering algorithm and a Bayesian theorem; through a
Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technology, outputting a point
estimation curve, a
confidence interval curve and a
failure probability density curve of the residual life; an equipment
maintenance plan is dynamically adjusted according to the prediction result, and early warning is triggered when the
failure probability exceeds a preset threshold value, so that decision support is provided for
predictive maintenance; the
system correspondingly comprises a
data acquisition and preprocessing module, a prior model construction module and the like. According to the method, through fusion of probability classification and statistical reasoning, prediction accuracy is improved, and a reliable decision basis is provided for
predictive maintenance of equipment.