The invention is suitable for the technical field of
thunderstorm prediction, and provides a strong
thunderstorm potential risk and intensity prediction method based on an
artificial neural network, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the ground-to-ground
lightning data of a target region, determining the
time distribution characteristics of a
thunderstorm event, and recognizing the time valley of the thunderstorm event; collecting multi-source meteorological data in a target area, and screening meteorological prediction factor data; performing space-
time alignment processing on the ground-to-ground
lightning data and the meteorological prediction factor data, and constructing a grid unit day-by-day sample set based on the aligned data; constructing a probability classification model of a strong thunderstorm
event based on the grid unit day-by-day sample set; building a regression neural
network model based on the grid units which are judged to be strong thunderstorm high risks by a probability classification model; and a collaborative prediction result is output, a predicted value of a geometric mean value of the ground-to-ground flash frequency and the
lightning current amplitude is synchronously output, and a
risk assessment basis of classification discrimination and numerical prediction capability is provided for
extreme weather early warning and
power grid disaster prevention and reduction through double-order modeling.