The invention discloses a reentry gliding aircraft trajectory prediction method based on a minimum cost criterion, and relates to the technical field of reentry gliding aircraft trajectory prediction. According to the method, the target guidance task is divided, and the time-varying parameter prediction
model set matched with the task is constructed, so that the redundancy of a lateral parameter model is reduced, and the rapid implementation of a prediction
algorithm is ensured; the maneuverability, the guidance intention and the
battlefield situation of the target are comprehensively considered, an intention cost function with a self-adaptive cost coefficient is provided, and the accuracy of guidance intention cost
estimation is improved; the
attack intention and the parameter model of the target are deduced based on the Bayesian theory and the minimum cost criterion, and error accumulation in the prediction process is reduced.