The application discloses a reentry gliding vehicle trajectory prediction method based on a minimum cost criterion, and relates to the technical field of reentry gliding vehicle trajectory prediction. The application divides a target guidance task, constructs a time-varying parameter prediction
model set matched with the task, reduces redundancy of a lateral parameter model, and guarantees rapid implementation of a prediction
algorithm; an intention cost function with an adaptive cost coefficient is proposed by comprehensively considering the target maneuvering capability, guidance intention and
battlefield situation, and the accuracy of guidance intention cost
estimation is improved; the target
attack intention and parameter model are inferred based on the Bayes theory and the minimum cost criterion, and error accumulation in the prediction process is reduced.