The invention discloses a throat area rail space-time conflict prediction based simulation method. The throat area rail space-time conflict prediction based simulation method includes: establishing a station yard rail network model, making an approach road information table, and making a train timetable; determining if there is an available draw-up approach road or not, occupying the draw-up approach road and performing drawing up according to the selected draw-up approach road; selecting a departure approach road during departure; and determining there is an available departure approach road or not, and occupying the departure approach road and performing departure according to the selected departure approach road. The invention also provides a throat area rail space-time conflict prediction based simulation system including a rail model establishment model, an approach road information table making module, a train timetable making module, a draw-up approach road selection module, a draw-up approach road determination module, a draw-up rail occupation module, a departure approach road selection module, a departure approach road determination module, and a departure rail occupation module. The throat area rail space-time conflict prediction based simulation method is high in efficiency, is simple in process, and is wide in application range; and efficient convenient and high expansibility simulation of high speed railway stations can be achieved.