The invention relates to a power
system short-term load prediction method based on a topology constraint space-time
diffusion model, which comprises the steps of 1, preprocessing
virtual power plant data, and constructing a standardized
data set, 2, constructing a space-time diagram structure model, and defining a node
feature matrix X and an adjacent matrix A, the method comprises the steps of (1) obtaining a historical load sequence, (2) gradually adding
Gaussian noise epsilon-N (0, I) to the historical load sequence according to a cosine scheduling strategy beta n, (4) carrying out denoising and
feature extraction through UNet, (5) outputting a final load prediction result, and (6) updating network parameters through a
loss function. According to the method, on one hand, the strong fitting capability of a
diffusion model to a non-stationary sequence is inherited, and the sensitivity to load
mutation is enhanced through a cosine
noise scheduling strategy; on the other hand, the space-time
coupling relation between the graph structure explicit modeling nodes is utilized, the collaborative prediction precision of regional load fluctuation is remarkably improved, and a reliable
risk quantification basis is provided for the
virtual power plant to participate in
power market bidding and dynamic scheduling.