The invention provides an MCMC-based dam
foundation engineering rock
mass displacement prediction method, which is realized on the basis of cross application of numerical
analysis software and mathematical calculation
software, is used for parameter inversion and model state
estimation during dam foundation excavation, and specifically comprises the following steps of: establishing a high
arch dam foundation three-dimensional numerical calculation model; a
constitutive equation of a dam foundation columnar jointed rock
mass is combined to carry out three-dimensional numerical calculation analysis, the deformation and
stress distribution change rule of the dam foundation rock
mass in the step-by-step excavation process is studied, a Markov Monte Carlo method (MCMC) is utilized to carry out dynamic
estimation and parameter correction on a model in the step-by-step excavation process, and therefore the dam foundation columnar jointed rock mass deformation and
stress distribution change rule is obtained. According to the method, the uncertainty of rheological mechanical parameters can be qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed, understanding of
engineering on the dam foundation excavation unloading state is deepened, a better dam foundation
state prediction effect is achieved, the mechanical mechanism and the
mathematical theory are combined, and displacement prediction of high
arch dam foundation excavation with the data driving method combined with the mechanical mechanism is achieved.