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223 results about "Bayesian neural networks" patented technology

Dynamic weight correction and path deviation probability prediction method for vehicle track

The invention discloses a dynamic weight correction and path deviation probability prediction method for a vehicle track, which comprises the following steps of: acquiring vehicle data and multi-source dynamic data of the vehicle track in real time through an optical sensor, a radio wave sensor and an inertial navigation sensor, carrying out space-time calibration, extracting obstacle characteristics and road structure characteristics, and predicting the path deviation probability of the vehicle track. The obstacle movement trend is quickly captured through a space-time diagram sequence and a diagram convolutional neural network, real-time obstacle avoidance is realized in combination with dynamic weight adjustment, a driving intention is predicted by using a Bayesian neural network, a trajectory planning strategy is adjusted through weight correction, and uncertainty is reduced by using multi-source data fusion and probabilistic prediction. A closed-loop feedback mechanism continuously optimizes the model, and efficient operation is kept in complex scenes such as intersections and roundabout through real-time weight adjustment and closed-loop feedback, so that the purpose of quickly responding to dynamic obstacles or driving behavior changes can be achieved, and the precision of the path deviation prediction probability is improved.
Owner:JARVIS INTELLIGENCE (SHENZHEN) CO LTD

Power plant equipment fault prediction method based on time sequence large model

The invention discloses a power plant equipment fault prediction method based on a time sequence large model, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, collecting and preprocessing the time sequence data of a multi-source sensor of a power plant, and generating a standardized time sequence data set; s2, constructing a time sequence large model, inputting standardized data, and outputting a future operation state predicted value; s3, comparing the running state prediction value with an actual measurement value to generate a prediction residual sequence; s4, constructing a Bayesian neural network model, inputting a prediction residual sequence, and outputting error probability distribution; s5, optimizing a Bayesian neural network structure and hyper-parameters by adopting an ant colony optimization algorithm; s6, confidence interval estimation is executed, and whether the state is a high-risk state or not is judged; and S7, outputting a running state label, and dynamically acquiring a data closed-loop updating model. According to the invention, high-precision prediction and uncertainty evaluation of the operation state of the power plant equipment are realized, so that the accuracy and response time efficiency of fault early warning are improved.
Owner:ZHONGCHENG (SHANDONG) INFORMATION TECH CO LTD

Solid electrolyte intelligent inverse design method fusing graph neural network and confidence analysis

The invention relates to the crossing field of material design and artificial intelligence, in particular to a solid electrolyte intelligent inverse design method fusing a graph neural network and confidence analysis. According to the method, a prediction framework integrating multiple models is constructed, support vector regression, gradient boosting regression, a deep neural network and a graph neural network are included, component, process and structure parameter characteristics are fully fused, and the nonlinear mapping relation between input variables and performance parameters such as resistivity and conductivity is efficiently learned. In order to improve the credibility, a Bayesian neural network and a Monte Carlo method are further introduced, a confidence interval corresponding to each group of prediction results is output, and quantitative evaluation of the credibility of the prediction value is realized. In the inverse design module, high-dimensional submerged space parameters are generated based on a variational auto-encoder, and intelligent recommendation of parameter combination driven by target performance is realized in combination with strategies such as Bayesian optimization and a genetic algorithm. The design efficiency of the solid electrolyte and the success rate of material discovery can be effectively improved.
Owner:HANGZHOU DIANZI UNIV

Aero-engine model Bayesian optimization method for quantizing uncertainty

The invention relates to the technical field of simulation model optimization, and discloses an aero-engine model Bayesian optimization method for quantizing uncertainty, and the method comprises the steps: building a probability mapping relation from a component index to an output response through constructing a Bayesian neural network agent model based on a probability weight coefficient; and by taking the difference between the output response and the corresponding complete machine test data as a multi-objective loss function and taking the minimization of the multi-objective loss function as an optimization objective, optimizing the component indexes by adopting a Bayesian optimization method based on a Gaussian process to obtain an optimal component index combination. Not only is a nonlinear relationship between high-dimensional parameters and simulation-test deviation accurately modeled through a neural network, but also efficient search of a parameter space is realized through a Gaussian process. The technical problems that when a traditional optimization method is used for processing the high-dimensional, strong-nonlinearity and multi-parameter coupling complex optimization problem of the aero-engine, the calculation efficiency is low, local optimum is prone to occurring, and result uncertainty cannot be quantified are solved.
Owner:AECC SICHUAN GAS TURBINE RES INST

Urban water supply management data trend analysis method based on space-time analysis

The invention discloses an urban water supply management data trend analysis method based on space-time analysis, and relates to the field of data processing, and the method comprises the steps: collecting data in real time through an urban water supply pipe network sensor network, building a space-time unified coordinate system, building a space-time Kriging interpolation model based on pipe network topology, and achieving the space-time alignment of multi-source data; dividing an adaptive space-time grid by using a Voronoi diagram and a sliding window mechanism, and calculating multi-dimensional features; constructing a dynamic space-time diagram by taking a grid as a node, performing multi-step prediction in combination with a space-time diagram convolution circulation network, fusing a Kriging interpolation result, and evaluating an abnormal probability and a confidence interval through a Bayesian neural network; a monitoring layer, a prediction layer and a risk layer are overlaid in a three-dimensional GIS, a dynamic thermodynamic diagram is generated, an early warning path is optimized based on a Dijkstra algorithm, and a minimum risk topology path is output. The method has the advantages that through space-time analysis and accurate prediction, the intelligence, stability and emergency response efficiency of urban water supply management are remarkably improved, and powerful support is provided for smart city construction.
Owner:SHANGHAI SHUHUI INTELLIGENT TECH CO LTD

Concrete durability prediction method based on Bayesian neural network

The invention discloses a Bayesian neural network-based concrete durability prediction method, which is characterized in that durability prediction is carried out by designing a multilayer Bayesian neural network model and combining data such as a concrete mix proportion, external environment conditions and material attributes. The Bayesian neural network updates the weight and bias through random sampling, and can quantify the uncertainty of prediction and provide a prediction confidence interval. The method comprises the specific steps of data preprocessing, network training, sampling, calculating and outputting a mean value and a standard deviation, optimizing model parameters through a gradient descent method, and finally evaluating model prediction performance. According to the method, the uncertainty in concrete durability prediction can be effectively quantified, more scientific and accurate decision support is provided for building engineers, and the cost and time of experimental testing are reduced.
Owner:SOUTHEAST UNIV

Multi-modal emotion recognition and interaction adjusting system and method based on uncertainty evaluation

The invention relates to the technical field of artificial intelligence, in particular to a multi-modal emotion recognition and interaction adjusting system and method based on uncertainty evaluation, and solves the defects of uncertainty processing, robustness of interaction strategies, complementary information mining degree among modals and the like in the man-machine interaction process in the prior art. Depth application finiteness is caused by lack of modeling for feature uncertainty after fusion. The uncertainty of an emotion recognition result is quantified through technologies such as multi-modal feature fusion and Bayesian neural network / model integration, an interaction strategy is dynamically adjusted according to an uncertainty score, emotion clarification or conservative response is triggered in a high-uncertainty scene, the robustness of human-computer interaction and the user experience are improved, and the user experience is improved. The method is suitable for intelligent customer service, government affair consultation, medical inquiry and other scenes with high requirements for emotion interaction accuracy.
Owner:SHANGHAI JEINTAI INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY CO LTD

Equipment prediction maintenance framework based on probability residual life

The invention discloses an equipment prediction maintenance framework based on probability residual life, and belongs to the technical field of fault prediction and health management (PHM). According to the framework, through combining a Bayesian neural network and a reinforcement learning technology, probability prediction and dynamic maintenance decision optimization of the residual life of equipment are realized. The method specifically comprises the following steps: acquiring sensor data in equipment operation, and preprocessing to generate a training data set; constructing a Bayesian neural network (BNN), utilizing variation reasoning to approximate posteriori distribution, and outputting probability distribution of residual life through Monte Carlo sampling; based on a probability prediction result, constructing a reinforcement learning environment model, and defining a state space containing residual life distribution, a spare part state and a maintenance action and a reward function; a Double DQN algorithm is adopted to optimize a maintenance strategy, and intelligent decision-making of the optimal maintenance time and the optimal ordering time of equipment is dynamically realized through an epsilon-greedy algorithm, so that the maintenance cost and the fault risk are minimized. According to the method, probability residual life distribution and reinforcement learning decision are innovatively combined, the problem that a traditional point estimation model ignores uncertainty is solved, an intelligent maintenance framework is constructed through a reinforcement learning method, and dynamic optimization of maintenance decision is achieved. The NASA aero-engine data set verification shows that compared with a traditional method, the optimization effects of prediction errors, uncertainty quantification, the maintenance cost rate and the like are remarkable, and the reliability and economical efficiency of equipment are effectively balanced.
Owner:BEIHANG UNIV

Ice lake feedback monitoring and early warning method based on artificial intelligence and multi-source data fusion

The invention discloses an ice lake feedback monitoring and early warning method based on artificial intelligence and multi-source data fusion, and belongs to the technical field of natural disaster monitoring, and the method specifically comprises the steps: extracting ice lake state feature vectors of multiple spatio-temporal data through cross-modal self-supervised learning, and constructing a three-dimensional virtual ice lake model; based on the feature vectors, constructing a glacier three-dimensional stress field model by using a finite element method, constructing a seepage channel graph model by using a graph neural network, and fusing the features of the glacier three-dimensional stress field model and the seepage channel graph model to form mechanical-seepage coupling state vectors; constructing a pulse neural network to simulate glacier fracture extension and seepage mutation pulse events; constructing a heterogeneous graph federated architecture and outputting a federated weight matrix in combination with a dynamic weighted aggregation strategy; the federal learning weight and the three-dimensional model output result are fused, the outburst posterior probability is calculated through a Bayesian neural network, and a fourth-level early warning signal is generated; according to the invention, the multi-dimensional characterization and coupling process simulation of the state of the ice lake is realized, and the early warning accuracy and timeliness are improved.
Owner:CHINA GEOLOGICAL SURVEY MILITARY-CIVILIAN INTEGRATED GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CENT

Power transformer residual life prediction method based on digital-analog fusion

The invention provides a method for predicting the residual life of a power transformer based on digital-analog fusion, and belongs to the technical field of transformer detection.The method comprises the steps that multi-dimensional sensor data of the power transformer is collected, wavelet transform preprocessing is conducted, a normalized data matrix is established, a physical equation is established, and a deterministic physical model is formed; a data-driven model is established based on an improved adaptive multi-scale network to realize multi-scale feature adaptive extraction, a topological phase change algorithm is introduced to identify key transition points in an aging process, and a deterministic physical model and the data-driven model are fused to establish a digital-analog fusion prediction framework. A generative adversarial network is adopted to perform data enhancement to solve the problem of scarcity of fault samples, a Bayesian neural network and a Monte Carlo random inactivation technology are utilized to construct an uncertainty quantization framework to output a residual life prediction value and a confidence interval thereof, and the technical problem that the prediction precision of the residual life of the transformer is not high is solved.
Owner:PINGGAO GRP SMART ELECTRIC +1

Aluminum alloy milling parameter optimization method based on improved Bayesian neural network

The invention relates to the technical field of numerical control machining process optimization, in particular to an aluminum alloy milling parameter optimization method based on an improved Bayesian neural network, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, building an aluminum alloy thin-wall part milling finite element model based on a Johnson-Cook constitutive model; s2, carrying out a single-factor milling experiment, and verifying the reliability of the finite element model; s3, constructing a Bayesian neural network model fused with a multi-head attention mechanism, and establishing a mapping relation between process parameters and surface quality indexes; s4, establishing a multi-objective optimization model based on the MHA-BNN prediction model, and solving by adopting an NSGA-II algorithm; and S5, performing experimental verification and analysis on an optimization result. According to the method, a multi-head attention mechanism is introduced into a Bayesian neural network, and a milled surface roughness and residual stress probability prediction model is constructed; and a multi-objective optimization framework fusing physical constraint and data driving is established, collaborative optimization of the surface roughness, the residual stress and the processing efficiency is realized, and meanwhile, the problem that a traditional deep learning method is insufficient in prediction precision under a small sample condition is solved.
Owner:CHONGQING UNIV OF TECH

Design and simulation method of two-dimensional semiconductor nanometer transistor

The invention relates to the technical field of design and application of two-dimensional materials, and discloses a design and simulation method of a two-dimensional semiconductor nanometer transistor, which comprises the following steps: collecting multi-source data of design and simulation of the two-dimensional semiconductor nanometer transistor, and screening through a data quality evaluation model to obtain a layered data structure; constructing and training a Bayesian neural network model; key influence parameters are identified through a multi-scale feature extraction algorithm and a parameter correlation analysis algorithm, and an attention algorithm is applied to pay attention to an important parameter combination; meanwhile, the uncertainty is predicted, a sampling point with the most information content is generated, and a prediction confidence interval is provided; through active learning feedback optimization circulation, high-value data points are selected based on prediction uncertainty for verification, and the model is updated until preset precision or resource constraint is achieved; according to the method, through multi-scale feature representation and parameter correlation analysis, invalid parameter exploration is reduced, and meanwhile, the model interpretability is improved through integrated physical constraint and uncertainty quantification.
Owner:SHENZHEN TONGHUI TECH CO LTD

Early warning method and system for abnormity of power supply system

The invention relates to the field of intelligent early warning of guaranteed power supply, and provides an abnormal early warning method and system for a guaranteed power supply system, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the topological structure, real-time operation data and equipment state data of each node in a guaranteed power supply network, employing the conditional entropy and instantaneous causal entropy calculation technology, precisely evaluating the causal intensity between variables, and achieving the early warning of the abnormal state of the guaranteed power supply system. And a causal adjacency matrix dynamically changing along with time is constructed to reflect a complex causal relationship in the network. Then, in combination with an equipment topological structure and dynamic causal information, multi-scale time sequence features are extracted through feature updating and expansion causal convolution, and a comprehensive feature vector is formed; after the vector is input into the Bayesian neural network, a plurality of prediction value samples are generated through sampling weight distribution, a mean value is used as a prediction result, and the prediction uncertainty is measured through variance. Accurate prediction and timely early warning of potential anomalies of the power supply system are realized, and the stability and safety of the system are effectively improved.
Owner:GUIZHOU POWER GRID CO LTD

Mechanical arm control method and system based on mechanism-Bayesian joint modeling

The invention provides a mechanical arm control method and system based on mechanism-Bayesian joint modeling, and relates to the technical field of robot control, and the method comprises the steps that firstly, a mechanical arm mechanism model is constructed, parameters of the mechanical arm mechanism model are estimated, and preliminary dynamics prediction is obtained; then, combining with motor driving torque observation data, establishing a random mathematical model of mechanism model residual errors, and decomposing the random mathematical model into deterministic and random parts; carrying out probability learning on the residual error by utilizing a Bayesian neural network, and outputting a prediction mean value and a variance of the residual error; in combination with preliminary dynamic prediction and residual information, constructing a data-driven uncertainty adaptive control law without dependence of an acceleration signal, and carrying out random stability analysis; and a stable joint driving torque instruction is generated, and high-precision trajectory tracking of the mechanical arm is achieved. According to the method, the interpretability of the mechanism model and the high adaptability of the data driving model are combined, the control precision and flexibility are effectively considered, and the robustness and reliability of the mechanical arm in the complex dynamic environment are improved.
Owner:HANGZHOU INNOVATION RES INST OF BEIJING UNIV OF AERONAUTICS & ASTRONAUTICS +1

Method and device for predicting residual service life of mechanical equipment and quantitatively analyzing uncertainty

The invention discloses a mechanical equipment residual service life prediction and uncertainty quantitative analysis method and device. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring multi-dimensional time sequence sensor data generated by mechanical equipment to be predicted in an operation process; inputting the multi-dimensional time sequence sensor data into a pre-trained physical constraint Bayesian neural network model; wherein the physical constraint Bayesian neural network model comprises a segmented bidirectional long short-term memory network feature extraction module, a hierarchical gating recursive regression network degradation dynamic modeling module and a Bayesian reasoning and physical constraint fusion regression module which are connected in sequence; the segmented bidirectional long-short-term memory network feature extraction module is used for processing input multi-dimensional time sequence sensor data and outputting hidden feature vectors representing local degradation dynamics of equipment; the hierarchical gating recursive regression network degradation dynamic modeling module is used for processing hidden feature vectors and capturing global degradation dynamic features through a complex numerical value hidden state updating mechanism; the Bayesian reasoning and physical constraint fusion regression module is used for carrying out Weibull distribution parameter regression based on the global degradation dynamic characteristics, introducing a deep implicit physical residual constraint and outputting a probability distribution parameter of the residual service life; and based on the probability distribution parameters, generating a residual service life prediction result and uncertainty quantitative information of the mechanical equipment.
Owner:XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV

Water pollution source tracking and atmospheric particulate distribution analysis method based on machine learning

The invention discloses a water pollution source tracking and atmospheric particulate distribution analysis method based on machine learning, comprising the following steps: S1, collecting and preprocessing multi-source data to generate an environment data set; s2, pollution diffusion characteristics are extracted, pollution sources are reasoned, and a water pollution tracking result is generated; s3, constructing a deep Bayesian neural network model, and outputting particulate matter concentration prediction and a confidence interval; s4, introducing a zebra optimization algorithm, and jointly optimizing a model structure and hyper-parameters; s5, fusing the water pollution tracking result and the environmental characteristics, and outputting a prediction result; s6, collecting real-time monitoring data, calculating a prediction residual error and feeding back the prediction residual error to the optimization model; and S7, generating a pollution thermodynamic diagram and a trend prediction diagram, and outputting a pollution level and an early warning suggestion. According to the invention, by fusing water pollution source tracking and atmospheric particulate distribution modeling, intelligent linkage analysis of pollution propagation path identification and air quality accurate prediction is realized.
Owner:亳州市生态环境监测站

Aircraft rapid multidisciplinary uncertainty analysis method fusing Bayesian KAN

The invention relates to a Bayesian KAN fused aircraft rapid multidisciplinary uncertainty analysis method, and belongs to the technical field of spacecraft manufacturing and application. According to the method, Bayesian learning is combined with a Colmogorov-Arnodel network, a Bayesian KAN neural network which can cope with high-dimensional input uncertainty, can quantify model cognitive uncertainty and is higher in fitting capacity is provided, a BKAN network agent model is constructed for a subsubject analysis model, time-consuming numerical simulation of each subsubject is replaced, and the calculation amount is reduced; with reference to a basic framework of a global sensitivity equation GSE of a deterministic field coupling multidisciplinary system, input random input and model cognition uncertainty are introduced, and expressions of mean values and covariances of disciplinary coupling variables and system responses are deduced on the GSE framework; a rapid semi-analytical multidisciplinary random and model cognition hybrid uncertainty propagation method is established, efficient multidisciplinary uncertainty analysis is achieved, and the problems that an existing method is poor in precision and large in calculation amount are solved.
Owner:XIAN MODERN CONTROL TECH RES INST

Model and data driving fused mechanical arm gravity compensation algorithm

The invention provides a model and data driving fused mechanical arm gravity compensation algorithm, and aims to solve the problem of poor mechanical arm gravity compensation precision caused by model uncertainty. According to the algorithm, firstly, a statics equation is established, secondly, multiple data are trained through a Bayesian neural network (BNN), a predicted torque and a standard are generated, then, through a Bayesian fusion method, a model calculation result and a neural network fitting result are subjected to Bayesian fusion according to a standard deviation, and a fusion estimation torque is generated. In order to solve the problem that the generalization ability of a data driving model is insufficient in an unseen scene, the algorithm uses a physical model as a constraint condition to limit the range of fusion torque, high deviation caused by insufficient model generalization is reduced, and then stability is ensured. Compared with a traditional modeling method, the fusion strategy is combined with the self-adaptability of physical constraint and data driving, the influence of modeling errors on the control precision is effectively reduced, and the precision and robustness of gravity compensation are remarkably improved.
Owner:BEIHANG UNIV

Power load prediction method

The invention discloses a power load prediction method, and the method comprises the steps: firstly solving an extreme event data sparsity problem through a generative adversarial network, and constructing an event time sequence library through a time sequence anomaly detection algorithm; then analyzing the causal relationship between the event and the load by applying a causal discovery algorithm, and converting prediction output into probability distribution by adopting a Bayesian neural network to quantify uncertainty; constructing a prediction model triggered by an event, and generating a multi-time scale probability prediction interval; and finally, generating a multi-scene prediction result through Monte Carlo simulation, quantifying the system recovery capability in combination with a toughness index, and integrating the system recovery capability to a decision support system to generate a risk response scheme. According to the method, the accuracy and robustness of load prediction under the extreme climate are remarkably improved, full-chain risk insight from early warning to recovery is realized, and prospective decision support is provided for safe operation of a power system.
Owner:HUBEI ELECTRIC POWER CO JINGZHOU POWER SUPPLY CO

Fracture parameter inversion method based on Bayesian neural network

The invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas field development, in particular to a fracture parameter inversion method based on a Bayesian neural network, which comprises the following steps: establishing a bottom hole net pressure conversion model based on an actual construction curve, and drawing a bottom hole net pressure curve; calculating a bottom hole net pressure index sequence and a corresponding time sequence; establishing a shaft bottom crack extension mode judgment criterion on the basis of a classic double logarithmic curve analysis method; taking the net pressure index sequence and the time sequence obtained in the previous step as input data, combining actual physical parameter constraints, and establishing an inversion fracture parameter model based on a Bayesian neural network; and inputting the pressure index sequence to be inverted into the Bayesian neural network model to obtain a specific fracture parameter inversion result. According to the technical scheme, the confidence interval of the prediction result can be given, the prediction result and uncertainty quantification capability can be synchronously provided, and the reliability and decision support value of the inversion result are greatly improved.
Owner:XI'AN PETROLEUM UNIVERSITY

Radiation shielding multi-objective optimization design method based on Bayesian neural network

The invention provides a radiation shielding multi-objective optimization design method based on a Bayesian neural network, and the method is characterized in that the method comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining sample data; s2, network construction and evaluation; s3, robust design optimization is carried out; according to the method, cognitive uncertainty in the modeling process of an agent model is quantified by using a loss function based on variational inference and KL divergence derivation, a nuclear radiation shielding calculation agent model considering uncertainty factors is obtained, and radiation shielding calculation is performed on an objective function in multi-objective optimization design through the constructed agent model. And a Pareto optimal solution set with certain robustness is obtained in combination with robust optimization design. According to the method, prior distribution is added to the weights of a neural network model, then the change conditions of the weights when data are given are obtained to measure the cognitive uncertainty in radiation shielding simulation, and the robustness of an optimization result is improved.
Owner:HUNAN UNIV +1

Electric quantity prediction method and system fusing physical constraint factors

The invention provides an electric quantity prediction method and system fusing physical constraint factors, and relates to the technical field of electric quantity prediction. Historical load, weather, electricity price and calendar data are collected, and a key feature set is constructed through preprocessing and feature selection; a prediction model with the physical information neural network as the core is constructed, the prediction model comprises a recursion sub-module used for short-term prediction and a trend sub-module used for long-term prediction, and a physical constraint loss item based on a physical rule is introduced into model training so as to enhance the generalization ability; a multi-time granularity modeling framework is adopted, uncertainty quantization is achieved through a Monte Carlo Dropout or Bayesian neural network, and a confidence interval of a predicted value is output; and finally, causal reasoning is carried out through a Shapley value algorithm and anti-fact simulation, and key influence factors are identified. According to the method, the precision, stability and interpretability of electric quantity prediction are effectively improved, and reliable support is provided for power grid dispatching and decision making.
Owner:国网福建省电力有限公司营销服务中心 +1

Large model inquiry system based on multi-modal feature embedding and key point feature alignment

The invention provides a large model inquiry system based on multi-modal feature embedding and key point feature alignment, and aims to provide accurate diagnosis support for doctors by integrating multi-modal data such as medical images and medical record texts. The core of the system is a feature conversion and feature fusion module. The feature conversion module utilizes a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a recurrent neural network (RNN) to realize bidirectional feature conversion of image and text modals and enhance data representation capability. And the feature fusion module maps deep image and text features to a joint semantic space by using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) through key point feature alignment, and realizes multi-modal feature matching in combination with an optimal transmission method. The Bayesian neural network is introduced into the system to process uncertainty, and robustness is improved. And by integrating the medical knowledge graph, the accuracy and individuation of diagnosis are further enhanced. The system provides efficient and reliable support for medical inquiry and can be expanded and applied to scenes such as remote medical treatment and personalized diagnosis and treatment.
Owner:SECOND AFFILIATED HOSPITAL OF COLLEGE OF MEDICINEOF XIAN JIAOTONG UNIV

Super-set deterministic weather forecasting method and device based on machine learning

The invention discloses a super-set deterministic weather forecast method and device based on machine learning, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining multi-source meteorological data of a target region, carrying out the meshing of the multi-source meteorological data, carrying out the historical static feature analysis and dynamic feature analysis of the meshing features, obtaining the feature weight of each mode, and carrying out the recognition of the multi-source meteorological data. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a prediction sub-model according to an extreme event, obtaining enhanced numerical prediction data, obtaining posterior probability distribution of grid points through a conditional generative adversarial network and a Bayesian neural network based on the numerical prediction data, a gridding feature and a feature weight, taking a maximum probability value as a deterministic weather forecast, and calculating a confidence interval. And obtaining a joint probability product including wind speed and rainfall joint distribution and the characteristic contribution degree. According to the method, numerical forecasting set products of different mode centers are utilized to fuse probability forecasting information, deterministic weather forecasting is obtained, smoothing of extreme events is reduced, deterministic maximum value output is provided, and meanwhile good interpretability is achieved.
Owner:EARTH SYST NUMERICAL PREDICTION CENT OF CHINA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION

Complex equipment probability fatigue life prediction method based on physical information neural network

The invention discloses a complex equipment probability fatigue life prediction method based on a physical information neural network, and belongs to the field of complex equipment fatigue analysis, and the method comprises the steps: firstly, grouping the fatigue life data of a complex equipment material according to stress, carrying out the self-adaptive hybrid uncertainty quantization through non-parameter probability estimation, linear regression and maximum entropy modeling, and carrying out the prediction of the fatigue life data of the complex equipment material; thirdly, training a physical guidance neural network based on standard deviation data obtained through fitting, supplementing standard deviation under missing or limited data stress, training a Bayesian physical information neural network based on supplementary standard deviation data and fatigue life data, and sampling the pre-trained Bayesian neural network for multiple times to obtain a PSN curve; the method is used for probabilistic fatigue life prediction of complex equipment. According to the method, the accuracy and the stability of probability fatigue life prediction of the complex equipment are remarkably improved, and the physical consistency of prediction results is ensured.
Owner:ZHEJIANG UNIV +2

Transformer abnormal sound source positioning method and system

The invention relates to a transformer abnormal sound source positioning method and system, and belongs to the technical field of power equipment state evaluation, and the method comprises the steps: constructing a Bayesian neural network embedded with a voiceprint physical mechanism, and enabling a sound wave propagation equation to serve as a physical constraint to be embedded into the Bayesian neural network; reconstructing the voiceprint signal by adopting a compressed sensing technology to obtain a reconstructed voiceprint field; designing a multi-task objective function including data fitting, physical constraint and positioning loss, and optimizing data fitting, physical constraint and positioning precision to obtain a trained Bayesian neural network; based on a gradient sound source inversion positioning algorithm and the trained Bayesian neural network, sparse regularization is combined to obtain a prediction result of accurate positioning; and a prediction result is visualized to a three-dimensional model of the transformer, and the position of an abnormal sound source is visually displayed. According to the method, the limitation of a traditional method in a complex environment is overcome, and high-precision and high-robustness transformer abnormal sound source positioning is realized.
Owner:CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE CO LTD +2

Bridge life prediction method and system based on physical information neural network

The invention provides a bridge life prediction method and system based on a physical information neural network and fusing a physical degradation mechanism and monitoring data, realizes reliable and real-time prediction of the residual life of a bridge, and relates to the technical field of bridge structure health monitoring. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a bridge real-time feature tensor, forming a bridge real-time feature tensor with uniform space-time alignment, constructing a physical information neural network model by taking a space-time coordinate (x, t) in the formed bridge real-time feature tensor as network input, and outputting endogenous physical field data for representing a degeneration state of a detected bridge; retraining the physical information neural network model; and taking endogenous physical field data output by the retrained physical information neural network model as input, and feeding the endogenous physical field data into a pre-trained Bayesian neural network model to realize uncertainty quantification and prediction of the service life of the tested bridge.
Owner:CHINA RAILWAY ERYUAN ENGINEERING GROUP CO LTD

Power battery fault prediction method based on LSTM-BNN model

The invention provides a power battery fault prediction method based on an LSTM-BNN model, and relates to the field of battery safety management and fault detection. The invention aims to improve the capability of predicting the battery fault and provide reliable uncertainty quantitative indexes and management decision support in a mode of combining deep learning and the Bayesian theory. The method comprises the core steps of data acquisition and database establishment, data preprocessing and fault labeling, long short term memory (LSTM) network time sequence feature extraction, Bayesian neural network (BNN) fault prediction, uncertainty quantification, risk assessment and early warning and the like. The method can improve the accuracy and reliability of fault detection, can be widely applied to the fields of new energy automobiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, portable electronic equipment and the like, and remarkably improves the safety and prolongs the service life of the power battery.
Owner:CHINA JILIANG UNIV

Equipment interlocking safety management system and method of CNC production chain

The invention discloses an equipment interlocking safety management system and method of a CNC production chain, particularly relates to the technical field of safety management, and integrates multi-source sensor data and a deep learning model, extracts equipment fatigue and fault features, and evaluates an equipment risk level by using a fuzzy Bayesian neural network. Meanwhile, a wearable brain-computer interface is introduced, the nerve state of an operator is monitored in real time, the fatigue index is quantified, and double monitoring of the man-machine state is achieved. The system can automatically adjust the interlocking safety level based on the risk level, optimizes the man-machine interaction strategy through reinforcement learning, and improves the safety and intelligent level of the industrial production process. And meanwhile, a man-machine interaction protocol is optimized through a reinforcement learning training self-adaptive strategy.
Owner:SHENZHEN XINWANSHENGXINGJINSHUZHIPIN CO LTD

River flow online measuring and calculating method based on multi-source data fusion

PendingCN121881262ASuppress ambiguitysuppress pathologicalVolume/mass flow measurementMeasuring open water depthHydrometryAlgorithm
The invention provides a river flow online measurement and calculation method based on multi-source data fusion, and belongs to the technical field of river flow measurement. A Bayesian neural network and active learning collaborative hydrological memory reconstruction model is adopted to carry out high-confidence data interpolation on a sensor failure period and quantify uncertainty, fractional calculus is introduced to model a river memory effect, and flow evolution is analyzed through a fractional order water balance equation. And selecting a steady-state or non-constant flow calculation mode according to the flow change rate, inverting an optimal flow field for the non-constant flow by adopting a four-dimensional variational data assimilation method in combination with regularization constraint and time smoothing constraint, and outputting a flow measurement result and an uncertainty quantitative index. The technical problems that flow measurement and calculation data are missing and accurate interpolation is difficult due to sensor failure under the extreme hydrological condition are solved.
Owner:HEBEI UNIV OF ENG