The invention relates to the technical field of underground water monitoring, in particular to a high-precision underground
water pollution plume migration prediction and source identification method, which comprises the steps of constructing a graph structure, simulating an underground water
convection-dispersion process by using a space-time graph neural network, introducing a physical equation residual error constraint to
train a prediction model, and converting source identification into an
optimization problem. A multi-task strategy is adopted to synchronously identify a sparse source position and reconstruct a release history of the sparse source position, a model is finely adjusted and updated according to
gradient descent cooperative solution, and uncertainty is quantified. According to the high-precision
groundwater pollution plume migration prediction and source identification method, source position identification and release history reconstruction are synchronously realized through a multi-task strategy; organizing data by using a graph structure, constructing static and
dynamic feature vectors, and comprehensively describing
pollution migration space-time characteristics; a multi-stage curriculum learning, a splitting
algorithm and a
Bayesian optimization initialization strategy are adopted, gradient is calculated in combination with automatic differential, and a multi-source uncertainty
decomposition framework is constructed to quantify uncertainty.